You were lied to. The divorce rate is not 50%

[Zimbabwe]

Debunking the Myth that 50% of Marriages End in Divorce
Almost everyone has heard that 50% of marriages end in divorce. What most people don’t know is that this figure is merely a projection based on research that dates back to the 1970s, when there was a divorce boom after the introduction of no-fault divorce.

What is the actual divorce rate, then?
When research is based on surveys rather than statistical data, it appears that the percentage of marriages that end in divorce is around 31%. According to a 2009 Census Bureau SIPP survey (men and women, dealing with first marriage only), 72% of people who have ever been married are still married to their first spouse. One might conclude that the remaining 28% are not married because of divorce, but it is important to note that a certain percentage of these remaining non-married people could be that way due to the death of a spouse. The survey did not collect that information. Four other surveys collecting information on what percent of marriages end in divorce have similar results: 35.5% from the University of Chicago, General Social Survey, 2012; 33% from the Barna Group, 2008; and 37% from the Marist Poll for the Knights of Columbus, 2010.

Divorce Rate in America

Do 50% of marriages really end in divorce? The 50% American divorce rate claim first appeared in the 1970s, but if you dig deeper into the numbers, you will see it is more complicated.

www.divorcewriter.com

There are many articles like this one that you can find online, but this is the only one that I could find that actually gets to the point and states the statistics clearly. It is generally agreed the 50% divorce rate is an exaggeration.

 

[SW15]

Time for fun with statistics. I will be paraphrasing parts of the article below, which is taken from Caleb Jones, aka Blackdragon. The article was written in 2014. When he moved web addresses, some links broke so I found the internet archive links from 2014 when it was originally published (2nd link). I am paraphrasing and occasionally directly citing from Caleb Jones because his understanding of statistics is fundamentally strong based to anyone who has taken a statistics college and remembered parts of it afterwards.

Divorce Statistics - Alpha Male 2.0

I often point to the current high divorce rates as evidence of human beings not being creatures capable of, or even desirous of, absolute long-term monogamy, vastly preferring short-term monogamy and/or temporary marriages instead. Usually I refer to either the “standard” divorce rate most often...

alphamale20.com

Divorce Statistics - The Blackdragon Blog

I often point to the current high divorce rates as evidence of human beings not being creatures capable of, or even desirous of, absolute long-term monogamy, vastly preferring short-term monogamy and/or temporary marriages instead. Usually I refer to either the “standard” divorce rate most often...

web.archive.org

First off, the commonly cited statistic is divorce rate. What is a divorce rate? A divorce rate is the ratio of marriages to divorces in a given country that occur within a given individual year. It's an almost irrevelant statistic because it only looks at one year in time and doesn't assess the probability of a marriage failing over its entire life span. It misses two big groups in its calculation.

1. The stat doesn't take into account the number of adults who have never been married or haven't been married yet.

2. The stat doesn't take into account people currently married who haven't divorced their spouses yet, but who will at some point in the next few decades. Once again, that is a large number of people, both numerically and in terms of percentages. When you consider this and Point 1, the figure @Zimbabwe cited below to make the case that marriages end in divorce less than 50% of the time is wrong and greatly underestimates the lifetime probability of a divorce when marrying.

If you're a 30 year old man getting married for the 1st time, what's more relevant to you is the probability of your marriage failing over the next 40-50 years because your predicted life span is going to be somewhere in that range.

Other key points....

1. Whenever you see “divorce rate declining” articles, this means the numerical amount of divorces per capita is decreasing, but only because there are fewer people are getting married (choosing to cohabit instead), more people are getting married later in life, and there are two groups of women opting against marriage more commonly. There are more women now with bachelor's degrees or higher making more money and doing the independent woman thing. These are the careerist/feminist women often complained about on various threads. The lower socioeconomic standing women are now getting more free stuff from government due to the expansion of social welfare programs and are not needing to marry a man to get financial support. For lower socioeconomic women, the US government has cucked the male beta provider. When you see in threads that provider game doesn't work as well anymore, these are the broader social reasons why. What I said here in true both in the United States and most other Western nations.

The median age of a man getting married has been in the 28-30 range since the early 2010s, but in 1950 it was 23. This means you have less people between 23 and 28-30 getting divorced, since they’re not married yet. The real story is that the rate of people actually getting divorced once they get married is actually increasing, especially for people over 40. For example…

2. Demographers say that based on recent census reports, the increase in divorce with people who actually get married is real and continues to “point in that direction”, with 2009 numbers showing a roughly 46% increase in more recently married couples failing to reach their 25th wedding anniversary.

-- What this means in that in 2008-2009, there was an increase in 1983-1984 started marriages failing to reach their 25th anniversary as compared to a previous period. It's 2022 now. How many marriages started in 1996 reached their 25th anniversary in 2021? It is likely the percentages of marriages started in 1996 failing to reach the 25th anniversary was higher than what was observed with 1983-1984 marriages.

 

[Plinco]

I've never looked at the divorce rate critically before so I'll keep an eye on this thread.

 

[SW15]

The probably that a marriage ends over the at some point over a 40 year period is over 50%, likely into the 60%+ range.

If you have gotten married after 1990, there's about an 80% chance of AT LEAST one of the following 3 things happening during the course of the marriage.
1. A divorce
2. An affair
3. Long periods of boredom and dreariness, where a subpar to mediocre at best relationship is ongoing due to inertia and social pressures.

All 3 outcomes stink.

In most marriages, 2 of those 3 things happen, if not all 3. Long periods of boredom and dreariness lead to affairs, which lead to divorces.

Also, it takes more advanced statistical analysis to see that a lot of marriages continue on after an affair. In the pre-1990 days (more like pre-1975), it was common for women not to divorce after she found out her husband was cheating. The fictional representation of this was Betty Draper with Don Draper on Mad Men, but there were enough Betty Draper types in the 1960s to make her character a reasonable representation of reality. In the last 25-30 years, more men are cucks and staying with their wives after they find out their wives are cheating on them. They don't want to get raped in divorce court. Basic divorce statistics don't capture this information. To me, if a marriage continues after an affair has been discovered, it is a failed marriage. Marriage is intended to provide sexual monogamy.

 

[Stuffnu]

It’s 0% if you remain unmarried.

 

[DEEZEDBRAH]

Why Women File 80 Percent of Divorces

Why Women File 80 Percent of Divorces | Divorce Source

/thread

 

[Who Dares Win]

Drinking battery acid wont kill you 50% of the times but only 31%....ok guess I'll still wont drink it unless that % is balanced from a higher % of getting superpowers out of it.

 

[Zimbabwe]

Time for fun with statistics. I will be paraphrasing parts of the article below, which is taken from Caleb Jones, aka Blackdragon. The article was written in 2014. When he moved web addresses, some links broke so I found the internet archive links from 2014 when it was originally published (2nd link). I am paraphrasing and occasionally directly citing from Caleb Jones because his understanding of statistics is fundamentally strong based to anyone who has taken a statistics college and remembered parts of it afterwards.

Divorce Statistics - Alpha Male 2.0

I often point to the current high divorce rates as evidence of human beings not being creatures capable of, or even desirous of, absolute long-term monogamy, vastly preferring short-term monogamy and/or temporary marriages instead. Usually I refer to either the “standard” divorce rate most often...

alphamale20.com

Divorce Statistics - The Blackdragon Blog

I often point to the current high divorce rates as evidence of human beings not being creatures capable of, or even desirous of, absolute long-term monogamy, vastly preferring short-term monogamy and/or temporary marriages instead. Usually I refer to either the “standard” divorce rate most often...

web.archive.org

First off, the commonly cited statistic is divorce rate. What is a divorce rate? A divorce rate is the ratio of marriages to divorces in a given country that occur within a given individual year. It's an almost irrevelant statistic because it only looks at one year in time and doesn't assess the probability of a marriage failing over its entire life span. It misses two big groups in its calculation.

1. The stat doesn't take into account the number of adults who have never been married or haven't been married yet.

2. The stat doesn't take into account people currently married who haven't divorced their spouses yet, but who will at some point in the next few decades. Once again, that is a large number of people, both numerically and in terms of percentages. When you consider this and Point 1, the figure @Zimbabwe cited below to make the case that marriages end in divorce less than 50% of the time is wrong and greatly underestimates the lifetime probability of a divorce when marrying.

If you're a 30 year old man getting married for the 1st time, what's more relevant to you is the probability of your marriage failing over the next 40-50 years because your predicted life span is going to be somewhere in that range.

Other key points....

1. Whenever you see “divorce rate declining” articles, this means the numerical amount of divorces per capita is decreasing, but only because there are fewer people are getting married (choosing to cohabit instead), more people are getting married later in life, and there are two groups of women opting against marriage more commonly. There are more women now with bachelor's degrees or higher making more money and doing the independent woman thing. These are the careerist/feminist women often complained about on various threads. The lower socioeconomic standing women are now getting more free stuff from government due to the expansion of social welfare programs and are not needing to marry a man to get financial support. For lower socioeconomic women, the US government has cucked the male beta provider. When you see in threads that provider game doesn't work as well anymore, these are the broader social reasons why. What I said here in true both in the United States and most other Western nations.

The median age of a man getting married has been in the 28-30 range since the early 2010s, but in 1950 it was 23. This means you have less people between 23 and 28-30 getting divorced, since they’re not married yet. The real story is that the rate of people actually getting divorced once they get married is actually increasing, especially for people over 40. For example…

2. Demographers say that based on recent census reports, the increase in divorce with people who actually get married is real and continues to “point in that direction”, with 2009 numbers showing a roughly 46% increase in more recently married couples failing to reach their 25th wedding anniversary.

-- What this means in that in 2008-2009, there was an increase in 1983-1984 started marriages failing to reach their 25th anniversary as compared to a previous period. It's 2022 now. How many marriages started in 1996 reached their 25th anniversary in 2021? It is likely the percentages of marriages started in 1996 failing to reach the 25th anniversary was higher than what was observed with 1983-1984 marriages.

Looks like i was wrong then

 

[DEEZEDBRAH]

Looks like i was wrong then

It's another form of slavery. Just one divorce and you've ****ed up your resources. In the west women have incentives to divorce rape. No live in gf. No marriage. No other man's kids. No!

 

[jnMissouri]

No OP, we weren't lied to, you misunderstood the statistic. About 33% of first marriages end in divorce, 50% of second and 75% of third marriages. You can infer the more often you've been married and divorced, the less of a big deal it is to you to divorce again so the more likely you are to. Moreover, you (not you but people) likely are the type of person that has bad judgment in partners OR have some issues of your own that causes you to end up driving your partner away.

On average, 50% of all marriages end in divorce. First, second, third, combined....But if you look deeper, the older, more educated and higher your income you are when you get married, the less likely you are to divorce...I never understood the geniuses who told me to get married at 19 and so forth. Friends, and others. All divorced now. You have no idea who you are at 18, not even until you are 30 really. You will change....

I was engaged in my early twenties, ring and all, but it was family pressure, I didn't want to. Also talked about engagement with my high school gf. But I backed out of both, thank God. Both of them turned out to be abject losers, wanted to get married so bad but every man runs from them...to this day when I look at their facebook profiles, all I can think is why on Earth did I stay with them so long?? The answer....they were hot, that is all. And hot doesn't usually make a good partner, they are usually the worst as they rely on their looks to keep a man...

 

[jnMissouri]

I'll also say I never understood the point of marriage. Countless women I've dated asked me why I don't get married. I ask them what's in it for me. They say "love". I'm like, what does a contract have to do with love? I've been in love and currently am in love as is she without the paper. It doesn't guarantee forever, all it guarantees is you losing 50% of your assets NO MATTER WHAT SHE DOES in no fault divorce states...Yeah, you come home to find her banging the pool boy in YOUR house and she takes half. Seen it happen to guys. As a guy with assets why on Earth would I do that? If she's bringing a lot of assets to the table, sure. But if not, no. On top of that, she's a depreciating asset, her looks will fade over time. I can go out and find younger women up to a point, maybe 50 ish. As it stands now, at nearly 40 I've been in relationships with a 25 year old for nearly two years recently, a 28/29 year old prior to that, a couple 19 year olds prior to that, and a few girls my own age prior to that including my gf of ten years before a string of other women.

We need companionship as much as we need food, but women are temporary. My friend was over and we were tallying it last night. I end up in relationships I shouldn't be in because I have no family here and as a result, I have nowhere to go for milestones such as birthdays, holidays, etc. I've always celebrated them with my gf's and their families. So we tallied it. Since my 22 years of adulthood, I've been in relationships nearly 80% of the time, and since 24 YO, I've been in relationships 99% of the time, with only a break of 1-3 months of dating in between relationships until I find one I want to be in a relationship with. But all of them have been temporary....even my ten year relationship with my long time gf....though that was my fault. Her, I should have married. I'd be set for life family wise. But it's probably too late.

 

[SW15]

Divorce Statistics and Facts | What Affects Divorce Rates in the U.S.?

We found every divorce statistic, study and fact you need to know - over 115 in all. Find out what impacts divorce (spoiler: almost everything).

www.wf-lawyers.com

"Researchers estimate 41% of first marriages end in divorce"

That's shiit if true. I think they've underestimated that too.

NCHS Pressroom - 2001 News Release - First Marriage Dissolution

www.cdc.gov

.

"43% of first marriages from 1980 did not make it to 1995."

 

[jaymbrs]

I don't go off these statistics that could be easily made up. I just take a look around me.

 

[SW15]

I don't go off these statistics that could be easily made up. I just take a look around me.

The problem with that is that no one's social circle is a represenative sample of the population at large.

 

[Bingo-Player]

I just take a look around me.

In my 30 years on this planet i can probably count on one hand the amount of long term relationships I've seen together that are genuinely happy and content

There is usually either a high degree of resentment , contempt , sexlessness or one partner lusting after someone else

Humans are not designed to cohabit in reclusive pairs for 40-50 year stints regardless of whether they are married or not

Marriage is just a social construct designed to control and inhibit our natural tendencies

Divorce rate and marriage stats are just nonsense ..... most people even if they are deeply unsatisfied will just sit in the relationship / marriage anyway because its easier than risking change

 

[Ricky]

Its interesting for sure. I'd venture a guess that my high school has a higher than average divorce rates.

 

[YourGreatestFear]

There are many articles like this one that you can find online, but this is the only one that I could find that actually gets to the point and states the statistics clearly. It is generally agreed the 50% divorce rate is an exaggeration.

It depends on the time frame you use as an estimation.

Divorce Statistics and Facts | What Affects Divorce Rates in the U.S.?

We found every divorce statistic, study and fact you need to know - over 115 in all. Find out what impacts divorce (spoiler: almost everything).

www.wf-lawyers.com

17. Over a 40 year period, 67 percent of first marriages terminate. So no, 50% divorce rate is not an exaggeration, it's the other way around.

 

[Bigpapa]

I don't believe trying to cover up the rampage of destruction caused (75% or more) by women in their second and third marriages is more accurate than including it in the overall data to get a 50% divorce rate number.

when a woman remarries is because she hated her ex husband , when a man remarries is because she adored his ex wife

 

[SW15]

Over a 40 year period, 67 percent of first marriages terminate.

When you marry, you have only a 33% chance of having that spouse around into your senior citizen years and living up to "Till Death Do You Part"

Most people marry before they turn 35 and most deaths now happen after 75.

Not good.

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Additionally, from this.....

Divorce Statistics and Facts | What Affects Divorce Rates in the U.S.?

We found every divorce statistic, study and fact you need to know - over 115 in all. Find out what impacts divorce (spoiler: almost everything).

www.wf-lawyers.com

The average age for couples going through their first divorce is 30 years old.

I didn't think most divorces happened until the 35-40 range. I tend to think of even 35 year old divorcees as young. I wonder if median differs substantially from average.

Over time, I've also met more 32-36 year old never marrieds than divorcees.

 

[jhonny9546]

why are chinese divorce rates so high vs other countries?