global trade grinding to a halt at a rate not seen since 2008.
- Thread starter Zimbabwe
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Effect will be inflation, shortages and most likely more stimulus. Load up on all non perishables since they will likely only go up and get more scarce and inflation protection assets, just pick the right ones.
Stocks won't be cheap until the Fed starts raising interest rates. In this case, will most likely trigger a large crash. Global trade and supply chains are struggling ever since COVID and have yet to come close to keeping pace. In addition here in the US we see this as increased inflation which is hitting two fold. On one hand we have supply chains being squeezed and then we have monetary inflationary pressure due to excessive stimulus.
What's really taking place from what I see is the Fed knows everything is on life support because there is no sustainable real growth. Everything highly leveraged. Politically the Fed is in a position to keep the music going so to speak, to keep the powers that be in place and happy. At some point they will be faced to raise rates.
The real issue could easily turn from a standard crash of bubbles and turn into a sovereign debt crisis due to lack of confidence in the dollar and our inability to make good on government debts.
My play right now, is looking to short the Euro/USD in anticipation of raising interest rates. I will then be looking for fractures in the S&P. If I see a golden cross I would look to short there as well. Simultaneously, Cryptos might become very bullish and create extreme highs being as no one wants to buy gold due to it's market manipulation. I want to cost average into BTC being as it's on the highs, but can easily break higher in the event of a crash. I would be hesitant to get into a full position in BTC right now though.
Once the markets crash though, I have a suspicion that unlike past crashes where money floods into currencies making the dollar stronger....I think there is a good possibility the opposite will take place as the Fed tries to lower the rate to zero or negative. This would most likely spark hyperinflation. In this case, I will be quick to turn around and short the dollar and ride the new wave as the markets fall apart.
In the mean time since inflation is still increasing, I am buying S&P dips to get the last squeeze out of this cycle before things deflate. There is a lot of bubble pressure building all over the place right now though and has been for a long long time.
What's really taking place from what I see is the Fed knows everything is on life support because there is no sustainable real growth. Everything highly leveraged. Politically the Fed is in a position to keep the music going so to speak, to keep the powers that be in place and happy. At some point they will be faced to raise rates.
The real issue could easily turn from a standard crash of bubbles and turn into a sovereign debt crisis due to lack of confidence in the dollar and our inability to make good on government debts.
My play right now, is looking to short the Euro/USD in anticipation of raising interest rates. I will then be looking for fractures in the S&P. If I see a golden cross I would look to short there as well. Simultaneously, Cryptos might become very bullish and create extreme highs being as no one wants to buy gold due to it's market manipulation. I want to cost average into BTC being as it's on the highs, but can easily break higher in the event of a crash. I would be hesitant to get into a full position in BTC right now though.
Once the markets crash though, I have a suspicion that unlike past crashes where money floods into currencies making the dollar stronger....I think there is a good possibility the opposite will take place as the Fed tries to lower the rate to zero or negative. This would most likely spark hyperinflation. In this case, I will be quick to turn around and short the dollar and ride the new wave as the markets fall apart.
In the mean time since inflation is still increasing, I am buying S&P dips to get the last squeeze out of this cycle before things deflate. There is a lot of bubble pressure building all over the place right now though and has been for a long long time.
SargeMaximus
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My opinion (and the thesis my investing is based on) is that commodities will outperform stocks going forward. Specifically Oil, natural gas, uranium, copper, and platinum
HaleyBaron
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There is a lot of play at work as far as who is doing what and what is causing the effect. I am still a supporter of getting rid of the Fed despite everything happening globally. Before them, we had no volatile currency. Ever since they were instated, we went through a Great Depression, about two to three regressions, the Housing crisis, and now the current predicament. The school of economics hates the Fed and for good reason. I believe we have to get rid of them before we can have anything be fixed. Crypto may or may not be here to stay. It's still dependent on external factors to have it exist. Without power or internet connection, it's worthless.
Willie Naylor
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With Bitcoin, I think there is a much greater risk being on 0 than buying here. If you have a long term time horizon, 4+yrs, high probability it will be multiples above this range. Just takes time to be outside of the volatility range where you can potentially be underwater. I own a lot of physical gold too but think there really is long term risk of it being partially demonetized by Bitcoin.
HaleyBaron
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Gold will last forever, you're fine. Bitcoin may not.
Gold will last forever, but the question is how large or small will the monetary premium be. It has never had a true competitor of pure monetary energy before.
HaleyBaron
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If it helps, the banks still hold it as one of their major sources of assets. And much of history has been raids on wealthy nations simply to take all of their metals.
Right, that is the issue, the banks completely control it, its highly centralized. I think the pendulum will swing to decentralization since all of the traditionally power structures have been corrupted. You can see this happening in multiple industries