Investopedia stock simulator, new business idea, and what licenses and or certifications would I need?

[Josh Davidson]

I am currently making 29.65% annual gains on my investopedia stock simulator account (fake money). I have a bachelor's degree in business economics which included several finances courses (1 course away from a minor in finance). I believe I could guarantee investors a 1.00% annual return on investment if they leave their money with me for a minimum of 1 year with no minimum or maximum on the amount of their investment (since I would be making a little over 28% ROI for myself).
What certificates and or licenses would I need to do this? I want to go into business for my self.
I have been on the simulator since September 22nd only 1 day did the S&P 500 outperform me!
If this seems like a good idea except that I am guaranteeing investors too small a percentage guarantee, what percent should I guarantee?
I want to do this all legally.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

I am currently making 29.65% annual gains on my investopedia stock simulator account (fake money). I have a bachelor's degree in business economics which included several finances courses (1 course away from a minor in finance). I believe I could guarantee investors a 1.00% annual return on investment if they leave their money with me for a minimum of 1 year with no minimum or maximum on the amount of their investment (since I would be making a little over 28% ROI for myself).
What certificates and or licenses would I need to do this? I want to go into business for my self.
I have been on the simulator since September 22nd only 1 day did the S&P 500 outperform me!
If this seems like a good idea except that I am guaranteeing investors too small a percentage guarantee, what percent should I guarantee?
I want to do this all legally.

Lmao...bro, 30% is a decent return in a day in some DeFi yield farms.

 

[Fruitbat]

Questions:

if you’re making that kind of money why would you want to open that out to investors? Make money. What’s in it for you to offer what you have out to others?

observations

You cant guarantee that without using zero coupon bonds or a similar instrument. You would have to use a risk free instrument to claim a guarantee, or a counterparts to claim it’s protected.

I will have to call you out my friend. There is no way you can guarantee this. We have been through a period of recovery where a trained chimp with a pin could have made money in any market.

You cant eliminate systematic risk in a portfolio without the above instruments. You cant back up that guarantee.

if you would be using equity based investments and giving 1% return, that’s an appalling risk and return trade off. No matter how well you balance correlation and betas etc you can’t eliminate that systematic risk.
The yield on credit is above 1%. Why would I give you my money to use in stocks when I can get a higher yield in credit?

Not to piss on your Chips but you can’t do what you think you can.

if you want to do this, you need to set up an offshore hedge fund - Cayman Islands. Bag about £1m of seed capital and a marketing team.

I think you’re suffering from an behavioural framing bias, where you’re overestimating your own skill when most of your returns have been driven from a CB inflated post Covid recovery.

see if you can do this over 5 years.

Are you a technical analyst or fundamentalist? If it’s the former then be really careful. TA particularly comes an absolute cropper when global crisis hits.

 

[Josh Davidson]

Lmao...bro, 30% is a decent return in a day in some DeFi yield farms.

Yes, but I know many investors would be very happy if I guaranteed them a 10% ROI, perhaps less than that! My question is: What licenses and or certifications do I need to become a financial and investment advisor in the United States?

 

[Josh Davidson]

Questions:

if you’re making that kind of money why would you want to open that out to investors? Make money. What’s in it for you to offer what you have out to others?

observations

You cant guarantee that without using zero coupon bonds or a similar instrument. You would have to use a risk free instrument to claim a guarantee, or a counterparts to claim it’s protected.

I will have to call you out my friend. There is no way you can guarantee this. We have been through a period of recovery where a trained chimp with a pin could have made money in any market.

You cant eliminate systematic risk in a portfolio without the above instruments. You cant back up that guarantee.

if you would be using equity based investments and giving 1% return, that’s an appalling risk and return trade off. No matter how well you balance correlation and betas etc you can’t eliminate that systematic risk.
The yield on credit is above 1%. Why would I give you my money to use in stocks when I can get a higher yield in credit?

Not to piss on your Chips but you can’t do what you think you can.

The reason that I would open it up to investors is because in real life I have about $900 in assets; however, I devised a method to make significant gains in the stock market but after 1 year at 29.65% ROI I can only turn my $900 into $1,166.85 without the use of other people's money. I want more money faster! Just out of curiosity, what percentage yield can you get in credit?

 

[Fruitbat]

The reason that I would open it up to investors is because in real life I have about $900 in assets; however, I devised a method to make significant gains in the stock market but after 1 year at 29.65% ROI I can only turn my $900 into $1,166.85 without the use of other people's money. I want more money faster! Just out of curiosity, what percentage yield can you get in credit?

sterling credit probably 1.5%
Global around 1.05% (euro bonds)
Not sure about US as I’m British but the US 10 year treasury yield is about 1.5% so I’d say 2% for invesment grade.
High yield is another matter but that’s more equity like anyway.

I can’t advise on USA but in U.K. it’s massively regulated.

Are you using fundamental company data or charts. You don’t have to tell me what you’re doing just the general idea.

I’m not trying to put you down but Goldman Sachs employees with 160 IQs can’t do what you claim over the long term.

 

[Josh Davidson]

sterling credit probably 1.5%
Global around 1.05% (euro bonds)
Not sure about US as I’m British but the US 10 year treasury yield is about 1.5% so I’d say 2% for invesment grade.
High yield is another matter but that’s more equity like anyway.

I can’t advise on USA but in U.K. it’s massively regulated.

Are you using fundamental company data or charts. You don’t have to tell me what you’re doing just the general idea.

I’m not trying to put you down but Goldman Sachs employees with 160 IQs can’t do what you claim over the long term.

I want to see how my methods pan out on the simulator for a while before I try them on the real stock market. I have a 140 IQ myself (tested).

 

[Billtx49]

The reason that I would open it up to investors is because in real life I have about $900 in assets; however, I devised a method to make significant gains in the stock market but after 1 year at 29.65% ROI I can only turn my $900 into $1,166.85 without the use of other people's money. I want more money faster! Just out of curiosity, what percentage yield can you get in credit?

This is how Ponzi schemes start.
Ask yourself this, Why would someone with thousands to invest trust someone with $900 bank ?

 

[Josh Davidson]

This is how Ponzi schemes start.

Oh! I certainly don't want anything to do with that!

 

[BackInTheGame78]

The reason that I would open it up to investors is because in real life I have about $900 in assets; however, I devised a method to make significant gains in the stock market but after 1 year at 29.65% ROI I can only turn my $900 into $1,166.85 without the use of other people's money. I want more money faster! Just out of curiosity, what percentage yield can you get in credit?

You are using the wrong platform then.

In 2 months, Twitter user rektproof turned 500 into 143+K in crypto trading.

Why people waste time in stocks, bonds, and gold these days I simply cannot comprehend.

 

[Josh Davidson]

You are using the wrong platform then.

In 2 months, Twitter user rektproof turned 500 into 143+K in crypto trading.

Why people waste time in stocks, bonds, and gold these days I simply cannot comprehend.

So crypto trading is where it's at. Thank you!

 

[Fruitbat]

I want to see how my methods pan out on the simulator for a while before I try them on the real stock market. I have a 140 IQ myself (tested).

you have a 140 IQ and you think you can make guaranteed returns in equity portfolio based on 1.56% alpha generation?

the S and P has done 28.09% as an unweighted index.

I bought oil in 2020 and have made 5 times that, and I doubt my IQ is 140 but I’ve never had it tested, when WTI went negative it was just so obvious.

 

[Fruitbat]

You are using the wrong platform then.

In 2 months, Twitter user rektproof turned 500 into 143+K in crypto trading.

Why people waste time in stocks, bonds, and gold these days I simply cannot comprehend.

Most of them know what they’re doing and have a deep analytical understanding of things like risk - standard deviation, beta, Sharpe, variance, correlation, systematic risk etc.

On the other hand, you have a lot of sentiment and noise in crypto and this is very useful to ride these waves if you know when to sell. Most research suggests that timing markets long term is not an effective strategy.

The fundamentals of crypto is it’s still money. Let’s not forget you recently said crypto can provide negative borrowing rates where people can get paid to have a mortgage. You haven’t yet responded to how savers being charged and borrowers being paid works.

A lot of people got lucky with crypto without really knowing how and now think they know a lot more than they do.

there are enough turkeys doing the same at the moment to keep it going, but at some point it will reach it’s real value

 

[BackInTheGame78]

Most of them know what they’re doing and have a deep analytical understanding of things like risk - standard deviation, beta, Sharpe, variance, correlation, systematic risk etc.

On the other hand, you have a lot of sentiment and noise in crypto and this is very useful to ride these waves if you know when to sell. Most research suggests that timing markets long term is not an effective strategy.

The fundamentals of crypto is it’s still money. Let’s not forget you recently said crypto can provide negative borrowing rates where people can get paid to have a mortgage. You haven’t yet responded to how savers being charged and borrowers being paid works.

A lot of people got lucky with crypto without really knowing how and now think they know a lot more than they do.

there are enough turkeys doing the same at the moment to keep it going, but at some point it will reach it’s real value

It's explained here in more detail and reading through the thread

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1445188774510661633

 

[Bible_Belt]

You would need at minimum a series 7 license to sell securities, because by guaranteeing a return, you fall under securities regulation. A firm sponsorship is required. They make you a cold calling slave for six to twelve months before they let you take the test. And then you sell what they tell you to sell.

 

[Fruitbat]

It's explained here in more detail and reading through the thread

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1445188774510661633

OK pal, you just convinced me to take a course to understand crypto. To be fair I need to get ahead of this given virtually nobody in my industry understand it.

I still maintain that no financial system can pay people to borrow money. Something is going on here, there is either collateral at stake or risk.

what I suspect is that the swap which this begins with start with some pre existing asset which is used to creat yield which supports equity, which is offsetting borrowing costs.

otherwise whatever is going on is providing borrowing without collateral for free, which can be realised to fiat. It’s an unsquarable circle.

whatever the reality of it, it’s something I’d like to get to know and I think it’s going to be useful as eventually stocks and bonds will be blockchain based.

 

[Josh Davidson]

You would need at minimum a series 7 license to sell securities, because by guaranteeing a return, you fall under securities regulation. A firm sponsorship is required. They make you a cold calling slave for six to twelve months before they let you take the test. And then you sell what they tell you to sell.

That's fine with me. I have experience with cold calling.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

OK pal, you just convinced me to take a course to understand crypto. To be fair I need to get ahead of this given virtually nobody in my industry understand it.

I still maintain that no financial system can pay people to borrow money. Something is going on here, there is either collateral at stake or risk.

what I suspect is that the swap which this begins with start with some pre existing asset which is used to creat yield which supports equity, which is offsetting borrowing costs.

otherwise whatever is going on is providing borrowing without collateral for free, which can be realised to fiat. It’s an unsquarable circle.

whatever the reality of it, it’s something I’d like to get to know and I think it’s going to be useful as eventually stocks and bonds will be blockchain based.

DeFi has banks terrified, they are scared to death because they have no way to compete with what they are doing.

 

[Fruitbat]

DeFi has banks terrified, they are scared to death because they have no way to compete with what they are doing.

If, as you say, they are paying borrowers to borrow, they won’t be around long enough (or they will bankrupt their depositors) because under no system can borrowers be rewarded and depositors be penalised. No technology on earth can change that because of the underlying economic principle.

I have a feeling it might not be as simple as being paid 10% on your borrowings but I need to fully understand what’s going on before I can’t describe it.

nonetheless there are reasons to digitalise assets, but just think about It.

if I can generate 10% by borrowing.
I can generate larger amounts by borrowing more.
so all I need to do is keep borrowing and I have an income.

what happens to the liability?
It’s seems weirdly reminiscent of Barings in 1995!

 

[BackInTheGame78]

If, as you say, they are paying borrowers to borrow, they won’t be around long enough (or they will bankrupt their depositors) because under no system can borrowers be rewarded and depositors be penalised. No technology on earth can change that because of the underlying economic principle.

I have a feeling it might not be as simple as being paid 10% on your borrowings but I need to fully understand what’s going on before I can’t describe it.

nonetheless there are reasons to digitalise assets, but just think about It.

if I can generate 10% by borrowing.
I can generate larger amounts by borrowing more.
so all I need to do is keep borrowing and I have an income.

what happens to the liability?
It’s seems weirdly reminiscent of Barings in 1995!

You are assuming that the rates for depositing one asset to borrow another are the same. Bad assumption.