Crypto trading strategy that is foolproof along with some patterns to be aware of

[jaygreenb]

Even within an extended crash there are buying/selling opportunities. Also, if you are aware the market is crashing and it is a true crash, why didn't you sell what you had at the beginning of the crash and then wait for it to bottom out and then rebuy at the much lower price?

If you lose 10% and then rebuy at an 85% discount you are getting a huge increase in shares. Again, the amount of shares you have with the same money is what matters not the dollars involved in the intermediary period.

There are very clear indicators that a crash is underway. Set alerts, check it often, whatever you need to do. But if it's because you aren't paying attention while it's crashing that's inexcusable. That's simply not taking it seriously enough. I don't care if it's happening at 4am an alert is waking me up. There are tens of thousands of dollars at stake I can sleep later.

This isn't some game for me. When I do something like this, I do it either 100% or 0%. There is no in between where sometimes I check or maybe every other day know what is going on. No...I know what is going on every waking hour. I am working on my work laptop with 8 or 9 tabs open tracking the movement and prices of various cryptos on my desktop. If I am away from it, I am on the app on my phone.

Most people leave a lot to chance. Not me. As little as possible is left to chance.

Because at the time you do not know if it is a true trend change or just a correction that will recover. It is not straight down, not always clear in the moment and it usually takes a around a year to work its way down to the bottom with many rallies in between. It is not as simple as you are making it out to be. No offense, but I can tell by the way you are talking you do not have the experience and are new to crypto. The market at some point will humble you. Talk to anyone in the space for 4+ years, I promise you they will reiterate my sentiments if they have made real money and kept it. I have already made the life changing money you spoke about wanting in this market, just offering some advice to avoid some pitfalls I have made in the past. I would be even farther along than I am now if I could avoided some mistakes. Genuinely wish you luck though just try and keep a open mind.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

,

Because at the time you do not know if it is a true trend change or just a correction that will recover. It is not straight down, not always clear in the moment and it usually takes a around a year to work its way down to the bottom with many rallies in between. It is not as simple as you are making it out to be. No offense, but I can tell by the way you are talking you do not have the experience and are new to crypto. The market at some point will humble you. Talk to anyone in the space for 4+ years, I promise you they will reiterate my sentiments if they have made real money and kept it. I have already made the life changing money you spoke about wanting in this market, just offering some advice to avoid some pitfalls I have made in the past. I would be even farther along than I am now if I could avoided some mistakes. Genuinely wish you luck though just try and keep a open mind.

I mean I get that it isn't always clear immediately but it is pretty clear fairly quickly if you are looking at the MACD/Signal line crossover points and the EMA12/ EMA26 crossover points along with the RSI. And if you don't know what those are then you were kinda flying blind.

I prefer looking at the 1 hour one for day to day and the 1 day one for longer trends...obviously shorter periods like 30 minutes, 15 minutes and even 5 and 1 can help you catch quick peaks and dips but it appears overall the 1 hour one holds the most weight on a day to day basis...

I will not put money into something until the 1 minute crossover point is reached where it trends positive...or at the very least where it starts strong upward momentum towards the crossover point from a very low position and the 5 minute crossover point is trending upward. This signifies it will be increasing and the 1 minute crossover is the most accurate way to find the bottom of the upswing point. However, depending on the other points it might be short lived, so that is not good enough to check on it's own.

This minimizes the risk even when things are "looking good" those tell the real story about what is happening and if it is likely to continue.
The dips during a good run are associated with the RSI getting near or above 70 which means the asset is being overbought and a correction or trend reversal will soon occur most likely. As long as the crossover points stay positive, it will rebound, although no guarantee as to how much or if it will get back to the high point of the run. When the RSI is near 30, it signifies the asset is under bought and a price increase is likely coming, although if the crossovers are negative it is likely a short term jump which will be followed by more losses.

Because the rises and falls almost always follow very closely with them. Looking at the Fear/Greed index can give you an idea of how long the rises will last...

People say "Oh it's crypto, there are no rhyme or reason for rises and falls", but there are VERY clear signals that a rise or fall is going to occur and they are pretty accurate most of the time...not all the time but 90% of the time. And 90% will make you a lot of money.

Additionally Fibonacci retracements are vital for understanding key support levels...for instance there are 2 support levels right now that BTC is in the middle of...42K and 28K...these represent the next Fibonacci levels...if it continues trending down and breaks through the 28K level it might continue downward for a little bit until it skyrockets back up...conversely, if it makes it back to 42K there might not be another crash and it will continue upward until it challenges 48K which would be the next level up from there...

Mathematics plays a huge part in all of this and not understanding these models and sequences is akin to commiting investing suicide.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

Also found this app called Bitcoin Crazyness that basically is amazing. Has every alert, model, graph, etc you could think of and also gives current moving average conditions and recommendations as well as buy/sell/hold recommendations based on 5 models...

Pretty indespensible for a quick confirmation of what you see with your eyes while looking at them

 

[Lookatu]

No offense, but I can tell by the way you are talking you do not have the experience and are new to crypto. The market at some point will humble you. Talk to anyone in the space for 4+ years, I promise you they will reiterate my sentiments if they have made real money and kept it.

This

 

[jaygreenb]

,


I mean I get that it isn't always clear immediately but it is pretty clear fairly quickly if you are looking at the MACD/Signal line crossover points and the EMA12/ EMA26 crossover points along with the RSI. And if you don't know what those are then you were kinda flying blind.

I prefer looking at the 1 hour one for day to day and the 1 day one for longer trends...obviously shorter periods like 30 minutes, 15 minutes and even 5 and 1 can help you catch quick peaks and dips but it appears overall the 1 hour one holds the most weight on a day to day basis...

I will not put money into something until the 1 minute crossover point is reached where it trends positive...or at the very least where it starts strong upward momentum towards the crossover point from a very low position and the 5 minute crossover point is trending upward. This signifies it will be increasing and the 1 minute crossover is the most accurate way to find the bottom of the upswing point. However, depending on the other points it might be short lived, so that is not good enough to check on it's own.

This minimizes the risk even when things are "looking good" those tell the real story about what is happening and if it is likely to continue.
The dips during a good run are associated with the RSI getting near or above 70 which means the asset is being overbought and a correction or trend reversal will soon occur most likely. As long as the crossover points stay positive, it will rebound, although no guarantee as to how much or if it will get back to the high point of the run. When the RSI is near 30, it signifies the asset is under bought and a price increase is likely coming, although if the crossovers are negative it is likely a short term jump which will be followed by more losses.

Because the rises and falls almost always follow very closely with them. Looking at the Fear/Greed index can give you an idea of how long the rises will last...

People say "Oh it's crypto, there are no rhyme or reason for rises and falls", but there are VERY clear signals that a rise or fall is going to occur and they are pretty accurate most of the time...not all the time but 90% of the time. And 90% will make you a lot of money.

Additionally Fibonacci retracements are vital for understanding key support levels...for instance there are 2 support levels right now that BTC is in the middle of...42K and 28K...these represent the next Fibonacci levels...if it continues trending down and breaks through the 28K level it might continue downward for a little bit until it skyrockets back up...conversely, if it makes it back to 42K there might not be another crash and it will continue upward until it challenges 48K which would be the next level up from there...

Mathematics plays a huge part in all of this and not understanding these models and sequences is akin to commiting investing suicide.

There are other variables at play in this market that can blow all those levels and patterns up. At a minimum I would suggest you keep a healthy percentage in bitcoin that you do not trade. When BTC really starts to rip, all alt coins will bleed out and get crushed in relative btc value.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

There are other variables at play in this market that can blow all those levels and patterns up. At a minimum I would suggest you keep a healthy percentage in bitcoin that you do not trade. When BTC really starts to rip, all alt coins will bleed out and get crushed in relative btc value.

Check out tradingview.com and the myriad of technical indicators...this is almost like a cheat code

 

[Bible_Belt]

Check out tradingview.com and the myriad of technical indicators...this is almost like a cheat code

I am a huge fan of fib lines and eliot wave analysis. Afaik those are the only two indicators that do not use past price data. Indicators like macd and rsi use price and volume to make their calculation. It is therefore a lagging indicator. When you spend enough time watching a simple price and volume chart, you will start to be able to draw those indicators yourself in your head.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

I am a huge fan of fib lines and eliot wave analysis. Afaik those are the only two indicators that do not use past price data. Indicators like macd and rsi use price and volume to make their calculation. It is therefore a lagging indicator. When you spend enough time watching a simple price and volume chart, you will start to be able to draw those indicators yourself in your head.

Tradingview uses like 35 indicators and typically consensus of the indicators move from sell to neutral to buy ahead of the actual movement of the buying action...

I am actually working on my own modeling of data to create basically "set it and forget it buy/sell points" every day using various metrics. I ran these on my own prior trades and I would have quadrupled my money if I just used those buy/sell points instead of trying to time it right.

Also one of the more interesting things I have noticed is that the volume jumps high and the RSI soars over 70 prior to the MACD crossing over the signal point into positive territory usually and then it jumps again right before major selloffs and the MACD starting to trend downward.

It always seems to go up more than you think it will and drop more than you think it will. Setting price points based on data crunching helps ensure maximum ROI. Also splitting buys and sells into 4 parts with 1 over my buy point for buys and 2 under staggered lower and 2 over on sells and 1 under to hedge against drops. So far it has been working really well. Tracking ROI and data. I set this up to take advantage of daily swings in prices. And am making smaller more frequent trades rather than single bigger ones.

Also tracking the BTC ratios of altcoins because when they get too high, they don't generate much movement even as BTC goes up...for instance MATIC averages around a 20.5-21 ratio, which is (BTC/1000)/MATIC but currently is at a 18 or 19 which means it is too high for where it normally is in relation to BTC...so sometimes even as BTC goes up, MATIC goes down or moves very little. When it was at 22+ it was skyrocketing when BTC goes up.
I correctly stayed out of both Skale and MATIC the other day as BTC soared over 37500 because their ratios were way too high. And I was right even as BTC rose overnight, those two dropped.