Is Trump bluffing?

[Black Widow Void]

Impeachment does not help Trump. I don’t know where you got that idea.

I hear ya.
Other than Republicans unifying and three Democrats suddenly prompted to vote against their party and ... following these hearings... there was immediately $15 million in small donations, including 50,000 from new donors for the Republican party (which exceeds in record time, that which the Democrats have raised).... you are totally right. It hasn't helped Trump's base at all.

I was a liberal Democrat for over thirty years. The blind obedience as demonstrated by @EyeBRollin is unfortunately a common liberal trait these days. My state will getting another speck of red in this years election... because I'm voting for a Republican president for the first time in 2020,

 

[thinker]

@EyeBRollin remember it is better to be thought of as a fool, than to open ones mouth and remove all doubts. You truly are the poster child for the arrogant and ignorant no nothing libtard that thinks he is the smartest guy in the room. Every time you post something you prove yourself to be clueless. People that have done even a small amount of research know that Iranians are not Arabs, but of course you just had to attack @Xenom0rph with the time tested liberal charge of racism when he was making a factual statement because we all know that to libtards facts are racist or sexist or something. As far as the current situation with Iran goes, the Iranians are trying to build the Shia crescent by uniting Iraq and Syria with Iran as Shia dominated countries. The world is headed for WW3 but the Iranians will be on our side as well as Russia and India, if you guys read Generational Dynamics you will understand this better. The Iranian government hates us but the Iranian people don't hate us for the most part. I think what Trump is doing is he is taking out the Iranian government by taking out their military and command structure from the outside. In Syria he had our military take out some of their forces and commanders and he is doing the same thing in Iraq. Trump learned from the mistakes of George w. bush, if we followed that strategy we would have invaded Iran and destroyed a future ally. By doing it this way we help the Iranian people get rid of the government they hate without making them hate us in the end. If you ask me I say this is a very intelligent way to go about this.

 

[backseatjuan]

You know what I think? I think that it's not a question of if Iran retaliates, let's face it, in that part of the world it's a matter of when. In fact, if it's not Iran, then it will be someone else. I think it's a matter of when war with Iran happens. I think that Trump thinks he will roll through Iran and within a week neautralize it without ground contact, using rockets and air power. That's his gamble.

That's a fcking dream and this is where he is wrong. Iran has capabilities to defend it's air space, and they have capabilities to sink American ships. So this entire gambit can end up in a sank carrier and several thousand Americans dead at it's minimum.

I think it's a disaster in the making.

 

[Vantagepoint34]

War during an election year? I highly doubt he is dumb enough to underestimate Iran's capabilities. I'm thinking this is a bluff, he knows somehow Iran is full of sht about retaliating. I'm thinking this is a show of alpha in the region, he look at me, I did this, and if you do something I'll do more. Sort of speaking language everyone in the middle east understands. What's your take on this?

op He has a very bad new yorker personality. The type that he can do something but you cant do anything to him. This probably goes back to his middle school problems....

 

[EyeBRollin]

only he will not be, also you should drop the racist comment since you are ignorant of most things who happen there, normally you should bring things in a discussion, you are just trolling with ignorance, no worse, you really belive in that

He was already impeached. This is not an opinion.

 

[EyeBRollin]

I hear ya.
Other than Republicans unifying and three Democrats suddenly prompted to vote against their party and ... following these hearings... there was immediately $15 million in small donations, including 50,000 from new donors for the Republican party (which exceeds in record time, that which the Democrats have raised).... you are totally right. It hasn't helped Trump's base at all.

I was a liberal Democrat for over thirty years. The blind obedience as demonstrated by @EyeBRollin is unfortunately a common liberal trait these days. My state will getting another speck of red in this years election... because I'm voting for a Republican president for the first time in 2020,

All of that is irrelevant. The only thing that matters is math. Since Trump was elected, the country has become less Republican. That’s why the GOP has suffered landslide defeats in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Where is the data to suggest 2020 will be different from the current mathematical trend?

 

[Xenom0rph]

You know what I think? I think that it's not a question of if Iran retaliates, let's face it, in that part of the world it's a matter of when. In fact, if it's not Iran, then it will be someone else. I think it's a matter of when war with Iran happens. I think that Trump thinks he will roll through Iran and within a week neautralize it without ground contact, using rockets and air power. That's his gamble.

That's a fcking dream and this is where he is wrong. Iran has capabilities to defend it's air space, and they have capabilities to sink American ships. So this entire gambit can end up in a sank carrier and several thousand Americans dead at it's minimum.

I think it's a disaster in the making.

An Israeli F-35 was able to fly through Iranian airspace undetected.

This will most likely be fought as a war of attrition with continued sanctions and cruise missile strikes. It wont be an occupying war like in Iraq and Afghanistan which would require ground troops.

Trump's best option is to keep up the fiery rhetoric, coerce European allies to go along with more sanctions, and continue limited air strikes on key targets. This will cripple the Iranian regime to the point of desperation. Time will eventually win this game in Trump's favor, but Trump has to be careful not to let warhawks push his administration into all out war which would be disastrous because it would require ground troops.

 

[Xenom0rph]

All of that is irrelevant. The only thing that matters is math. Since Trump was elected, the country has become less Republican. That’s why the GOP has suffered landslide defeats in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Where is the data to suggest 2020 will be different from the current mathematical trend?

In 2010 in Obama's 1st term republicans gained 63 seats in the House and netted 7 in the Senate thus flipping congress red from blue.

In 2014, in Obama's 2nd term republicans gained even more in the House.

In 2018 Democrats gained in the House but the Senate remains Republican.


Historically, off cycle(non presidential) elections have always favored the opposition party.

The 2018 elections mentioned merely represented a historical voting pattern and not a recent trend of the country shifting towards democratic.

The country's political landscape remains center with a slight shift towards the right because leftist culture is alienating most moderates.

 

[EyeBRollin]

In 2010 in Obama's 1st term republicans gained 63 seats in the House and netted 7 in the Senate thus flipping congress red from blue.

In 2014, in Obama's 2nd term republicans gained even more in the House.

In 2018 Democrats gained in the House but the Senate remains Republican.


Historically, off cycle(non presidential) elections have always favored the opposition party.

The 2018 elections mentioned merely represented a historical voting pattern and not a recent trend of the country shifting towards democratic.

The country's political landscape remains center with a slight shift towards the right because leftist culture is alienating most moderates.

Wrong. The 2020 Congressional ballot is almost unchanged from 2018. Losing by 9% nationally is not a fluke. Disregard this reality at your peril.

 

[EyeBRollin]

Honestly I think the two things favoring Trump are

1) Strong economy

and

2) Lack of opponent that inspires

If the Dems had someone who could stir up excitement and had a tenable vision they wouldn't need to worry about impeachment helping or hurting. Elections are all about feelz, nobody votes with their brains and they never did.

Irrelevant. The only thing that matters to an incumbent President is their approval rating. Trump is long term -9%, exactly the Republican loss margin in 2018, and almost exactly where the 2020 Congressional ballot is today.

 

[EyeBRollin]

Negative nine percent? How do you have an approval rating below zero?

Means his approval/disapproval. Long term he is 43-52% approve to disapprove. Strong correlation to election results in 2017, 2018, and 2019. His approval since impeachment is actually a bit worse - 42-53%. Where is the evidence suggesting he is becoming more popular?

 

[Xenom0rph]

Wrong. The 2020 Congressional ballot is almost unchanged from 2018. Losing by 9% nationally is not a fluke. Disregard this reality at your peril.

You need to re-read what I wrote. In off-cycle non-presidential elections the opposition party is always favored. During on-cycle elections the party of the incumbent president is generally favored.

Google voting history trends.

 

[Epic Days]

No. It’s not a bluff.

 

[EyeBRollin]

You need to re-read what I wrote. In off-cycle non-presidential elections the opposition party is always favored. During on-cycle elections the party of the incumbent president is generally favored.

Google voting history trends.

No, that is not correct. The incumbent president is not favored by default, they perform in correlation to their approval ratings. Their approval ratings correlate to the generic Congressional ballot, which is the most accurate prediction of the election cycle results.

 

[EyeBRollin]

I never said he was "becoming more popular." He only needs to be more popular than his opponent. (And even then...given the electoral college.) 2016 featured two unpopular candidates, which was unique. I would like to see an opponent with an inspiring and uplifting message, rather than "I'm not Trump."

Approval rating is tied to many factors, and one of the most important is the economy. Obviously impeachment and acts of war can affect his rating as well. Anyway we have a long way to go, 11 months is a lifetime.

No, he needs to be popular. Popular Incumbent Presidents get re-elected. Unpopular incumbents do not. This election is not a referendum on the Democrats. As of today, the Democrats have a +7.7% advantage on realclearpolitics tracker, and +6.6% on FiveThirtyEight polling aggregate for the 2020 cycle. Ignore this data at your peril.

 

[Epic Days]

What a bunch of garbage. Haha. Don’t feed the animals Sam.

 

[EyeBRollin]

What a bunch of garbage. Haha. Don’t feed the animals Sam.

Ah, sprinkle a racist dog whistle on top of ignorance. You can call statistical analysis “garbage” if you wish.

 

[EyeBRollin]

You're the one who lumped Iranians in with Arabs. Are all brown people the same to you? Not very woke, bro.

Lies. Cite the post where I said that.

 

[Xenom0rph]

Ah, sprinkle a racist dog whistle on top of ignorance. You can call statistical analysis “garbage” if you wish.

Can you ever engage in a debate without calling people racists?

 

[EyeBRollin]

Can you ever engage in a debate without calling people racists?

Yep. Don’t bring up race and you won’t be called racist. Not a hard concept.