Ok then, so do any of you have any thoughts about the companies I have mentioned above and what their future is?
I wouldn't touch Tesla or Netflix. I think Tesla has already seen
most of its upside re: value by positioning themselves in a niche market that's only going to see more competition. I think Netflix has pretty much reached saturation--most of its upside is already realized. Everyone and their mom
already know about these two and have probably invested; you'll have to think more outside the box.
SAEX is one I've had my eye on--especially at its current levels. But it's a speculative stock & one you'd have to keep an eye on daily (i.e. it could go up 1000% on hype and then go back down 1000% within hours or days). Longterm, I wouldn't feel comfortable holding & forgetting--though I don't think you would lose money.
I don't invest in tech or oil or gold or anything like that--I've only done biotech, which is super volatile and most 'traditional' investors specifically recommend against investing there. SPHS, CERU, BIOC, XXII, RTTR are all tickers that I've researched heavily & would be confident holding over the course of 5 or 10 years; but you wouldn't want all your eggs in one basket--at least a couple of those will probably fail.
Drone stocks & MJ stocks are probably good longterm investments at this point. If I was casually investing--i.e. buy it & forget it--I'd be looking into those.
What you need to understand is that we have the most efficient market in the history of mankind. No matter how much research you do, someone else has already done it, and the results are already figured into the current price of the shares.
Depends on the sector & the time frame. Once you get into spec stocks, fundamentals matter & development is too uncertain for the PPS to be anywhere close to accurately set. Time frame wise, a lot can change given 5 to 10 years, though most of the 'blue chip stocks' are pretty much none causes (but if you have enough $$$ that 1-2% looks pretty sweet lol).
Having said that, random walk is a lie. It is possible to predict future price movement, at least in some select instances - that's what traders prey on. But that advantage comes from analyzing past price movement, not from anything you could possible learn about the companies from your own research. Look at lists of 52-week highs, Screen them to eliminate the lower volume stocks. Then watch the charts. Buy them as they back off the 52-week highs and go sideways. Be on the right side of the market, right side of the sector's movement, and use prudent stop losses when things go wrong, and you will make money. It's not that hard. If you take a college course about the stock market, they will teach random walk, and tell you people like me are delusional. I made a living with those delusions for years, and saw countless other traders doing much better than me.
Agreed that 'traditional' investing is pretty much a lost cause unless you're already playing with millions. But again, depending on the sector, DD can be massively important. If a drug fails or passes--a binary event--your research leading up to that event can be the difference between losing 80% or gaining 300%. And a drug can fail or pass regardless of charts or indicators.
I've always suspected that the richest investors, the "elite", have knowledge of, or even control over when the market goes up and down, so they can make more money accordingly. They like to run it down so they can buy cheap and then they like to run it up so they can make more money. Maybe that's my tin foil hat talking, but that's what I think.
Not even a suspicion. That's exactly how it goes. The big guys ALWAYS get theirs. Every now & then the SEC will take out someone who overplays their hand--but the guys at the top, a lot of whose money is held in hedge funds offshore, are pretty much untouchable. As a little guy, you have to understand that & ride the coattails as best you can.
It's pretty brutal though. I've watched a stock tank 20% on FDA approval--top shelf data, placebo-like safety profile, almost totally de-risked--and they run it down 20% on good news, tripping off stop losses, hold it there for a week which puts all the little guys in margin call (they have to liquidate), buy up all the discount shares, and then let it run. I've also watched them run an obscure micro-cap stock up 2500% over the course of 3 days on nothing at all. The big guys sell their shares to the little guys on the way up who get caught up in the hype, set their short positions at the top; the SEC halts the stock & it opens like 95% down from its peak.
That's why you're almost guaranteed to lose money your first year. It's like living in bizarro-world--it's frustrating & unfair & logic flies out the window. But we also live in a time where the average Joe has access to more knowledge & faster data than even the best investor did 50 years ago--and it is possible to learn the rules of the game & play accordingly.
