Investing

BLebowski

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Well the subjects tells it all, I'm looking for good reading material on investing. I've got roughly 20k euro (~29k US dollars) on one savings account (and another 20k on another but I'm not going to touch it since it's backup money) and want to start investing again.

I used to dabble (gamble :crackup:) with index options on the Amsterdam stock exchange but this time around I'll invest for the longer term and need some good reading material on doing fundamental analyses. I know I can go to a bank or broker, but I want to delve in analysis myself first to know what's being talked about. Anyone got some good pointers? The list I'm looking at at e.g. Amazon is HUGE and I need to weed out the crap.

Ty in advance!
 

Mr. Wolf

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I'd like to know about investing too. Though I have much less money. Via PayPal there is an investment option, and you can withdraw at anytime. It pays 4.75% 7 day average, not FDIC insured.. Is that a good option as far as making money? Is it safe?
 

SmoothTalker

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Mr.Wolf, that doesn't sound too safe. I don't know about there but around here you can get a 4.5% savings account, where you can also withdraw at any time, and it's insured so you literally can't lose money. I'm not sure if the extra .25% is worth that risk, but then again I don't know what interest banks are paying over there.
 

Mr. Wolf

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You mean 4.5% over 1 week, 7 days? Or is it an annual, or yearly percentage? Or monthly?
 

SmoothTalker

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Generally, interest is given at an annualized rate. If it is weekly, then PM me the link man, that is a sweet deal. If it's weekly, and you compound the interest, that would be 1117% a year, which is needless to say, a damn good investment, 10X your money in a year. Think about this, you put in 9k this year, by next Christmas you have 100k. Let it run, and you'll have over a million in 2 years.

So, needless to say, that seems a bit too good to be true, but if they really are offering this on a weekly rate, hook me up man.
 

Naughtyboy

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BLebowski said:
Well the subjects tells it all, I'm looking for good reading material on investing. I've got roughly 20k euro (~29k US dollars) on one savings account (and another 20k on another but I'm not going to touch it since it's backup money) and want to start investing again.

I used to dabble (gamble :crackup:) with index options on the Amsterdam stock exchange but this time around I'll invest for the longer term and need some good reading material on doing fundamental analyses. I know I can go to a bank or broker, but I want to delve in analysis myself first to know what's being talked about. Anyone got some good pointers? The list I'm looking at at e.g. Amazon is HUGE and I need to weed out the crap.

Ty in advance!
Get 'The Intelligent Investor' by Benjamin Graham. Written ages back, but still very valid for our mad asset bubble world
 

Bible_Belt

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Anyone got some good pointers?

The past and present mean nothing. The stock price right now reflects the expectations of future earnings. Fundamental investing is out-guessing the crowd, or at least seeing a brighter future than they do for earnings, and being right about it.

Many people involved in the markets make the mistake of thinking that the present matters. For the most part, whatever you see in the present has already been predicted and thus already valued into stock price. If you go out shopping and see one store mobbed with customers and its competitor desolate and empty, most people are going to say that means to buy the stock in the first store. But in reality, those discrepancies in customers were likely already factored into price, so the observation is useless. What we are doing is comparing our own personal 'crystal balls' that predict earnings. If you have a better one than the crowd for whatever stock you buy, then you will make money.
 

Interceptor

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Damn, me too. I am definitely interested in some good advice here.
 

BLebowski

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Hey everyone, ty for the replies and I'll be sure to followup on the pointer Naughtyboy posted.

Bible Belt, good points. That phenomenon doesn't really strike you at first: the current situation already having been appraised in the stock price. In the end, it's logical in a way. Dealing with options was dealing with mass psychology in a way, I'm not sure whether the same principles transfer to stocks. It's also a different time (I made quite a bit of money during the Internet bubble when the sky was the limit :crackup:).

It's a matter of finetuning my crystal ball then; perhaps other people can give some good resources on this process.
 

Invisible Man

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Peter Lynch, the mutual-fund manager, wrote two excellent books: "One Up on Wall Street" and "Beating the Street." Both books are informative and easy to read.

If you're interested in understanding how macroeconomic conditions affects stock prices, I would recommend the articles at hussman.net under "weekly market comment" and "investment research and insight."

Good luck!
 

joekerr31

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invest in an index or mutual funds.

don't bother with the riskier / trickier stuff until you are in your 40s and have some cash you can afford to lose.

remember, your investment should double every 7 years based on a 7% annual return from a generic mutual fund and the associated compounding interest.

so if you invested that 30k today at the age of 34, it would grow to...

at 41 - 60k
48 - 120k
55 - 240k
62 - 480k

smartest thing you can do is get a nice 7% return every year (sure it fluctuates, one year you'll lose 5%, the next year you'll make 15% - in the long run though it all averages out to about 7% a year) and just let it double every 7 years.

you shouldn't be doing the riskier stuff until you have a nice mutual fund put together. once you have that, then you can start buying speculative stocks and taking a crack at getting that 50% return kind of thing.

oh and like i told iqqi - there are no easy fixes despite what you might think. the best investment youll ever make is in your education. get a good job so that you can make enough money to have disposable income to invest. most of the 'rich' people in the world didn't become rich using some miraculous investment strategy - most of them got rich by making money through working, then living beneath their means so that they had even more free money to invest, and then investing that money in things that provide a solid, slow but consistent return. i forget the stat, but something like 80% of the millionaires in the world are over 60. most 'rich' people got that way by making wise choices over the course of their life.

basically the type of strategy that warren buffet uses. his advice is to buy blue chip stocks and just hold them forever. which is very similar to buying mutual funds or an index fund.

but trust me, there are no 'safe' get rich quick investment strategies. when you try to 'beat' the market (ie. beat hte index funds) investing quickly turns in to what i'd call 'gambling'. you can spend a lot of time and effort trying to find the 'right' stocks to pick, but ultimately its a crap shoot because the information you REALLY need to to make a good sound judgement on the company, isn't released publicly - hence why stocks jump and crash on a quarterly basis when companies release information on whether they met their targets or not.

moreover, that 'insight' info you have on a stock is often not as insightful as you think and is well known by the investment houses, and as such is already built into the price of the stock. so you might invest in a stock thinking 'ya, I know when microsoft releases the new xbox 360 game that sales are going to sky rocket, so microsoft is a good investment" but what you don't know is that the stock is priced with that in mind (and even if sales are good, if it doesn't meet expectations, the stock can sink). additionally, with a company like microsoft, one game is a drop in the bucket to their overall business - so you really have to know EVERYTHING about a business to even have a chance at making a half way informed decision about whether it will likely grow more than the market thinks it will (remember, its not good enough to grow at the same pace as the market expects, they ahve to actually do better than people thought they would for their price to go up!) and really, who has the time to do the research required to be making good decisions (and if you do have the time, you should be using that free time to work more and make more money which you can invest into mutual funds :) )

so take my advice, gambling is for peopel with money to lose. investing is about long-term slow but solid growth - index funds or mutual funds, your choice. these two investing options were created to make the rich (ie. people with extra money to invest) richer - so use them!
 

speakeasy

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What do you guys think of diversifying your money out of dollar denominated assets? I've been considering putting my savings into a basket of foreign currencies to protect against inflation at home which I think is way higher than the 3% the government is saying, as well as the fed printing money like crazy and watching our currency fall against the rest of the world.
 

SmoothTalker

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You're a bit optimistic there. How exactly does 7% double your money every seven years?

Unless you're using some odd calculation, the standard future value with compounding would be 1.07^n where n is the number of years.

After 7 years, that's 1.61. Not double your money, just 60%, so only a bit better than half as good. In the long run, this overestimate really adds up.

Invest 30k at 34 years old at 7% (assuming you can even get 7% after the mutual fund fees and whatnot), and you get...

at 41 - $48173
48 - $77356
55 - $124217
62 - $199465

That's a HELL of a lot smaller than the half million you're expecting. Add to that 28 years of inflation, and you barely come out ahead. Sorry man, that's not how people become rich, or how the rich become richer (unless you consider people that have managed to save up 1 million by the time they retire (including 600,000 in home equity) rich.

That's why there's much higher risk, and much higher return investments available to the rich (accredited investors).

Also, I disagree that you should leave risky investments until you're older. I think that's exactly when you should switch to your sort of strategy, because then you don't want to be risking money so close to retirement. When you're young, if you blow some money, you have time to make it up.
 

SmoothTalker

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Yeah I think the government inflation data is bull****, and it's even worse up here in Canada ( I say that because everything seems a lot cheaper when we go there).

I mean if you look at the fact that energy prices and lots of food has nearly doubled in the last 5 years, not to mention the cost of a house, and add to that the steady increase in all other costs, and the inflation figures are insanely low.

Maybe that's what their calculations show, but in that case, I say that calculations don't reflect the real life situation.
 

speakeasy

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SmoothTalker said:
Yeah I think the government inflation data is bull****, and it's even worse up here in Canada ( I say that because everything seems a lot cheaper when we go there).

I mean if you look at the fact that energy prices and lots of food has nearly doubled in the last 5 years, not to mention the cost of a house, and add to that the steady increase in all other costs, and the inflation figures are insanely low.

Maybe that's what their calculations show, but in that case, I say that calculations don't reflect the real life situation.
Exactly, the government's basket of goods that measure CPI exclude everything that's going up in price.
 

Create Reality

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speakeasy said:
Exactly, the government's basket of goods that measure CPI exclude everything that's going up in price.
An example please?
 

joekerr31

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ok sorry, i should have been more accurate. the doubling your money every 7 years is based on an annual 10% return - which is what the indices average (dow, nyse, etc.) over the long haul. i state 7% because some when picking a mutual fund strategy you can go low or high risk. 7% is generally considered a low risk return, whereas 10% is generally considered higher risk.

but i agree, very bad form on my part that in explaining this . anyway 30k at 10% per year, letting the compounding interest ride...

after year 1
- 33000
after year 2
-36300
after year 3
- 39930
after year 4
- 43923
after year 5
- 48315
after year 6
- 53146
after year 7
-58460.65

now imagine that you toss in say 5k a year over those 7 years (ie. another 35k). with the compounding interest on that money also, you've got yourself a sweet little nest egg of well over 100k.

so take it for what you will. if you think getting 10% a year from the markets via mutual fund investing is bullsh*t, then don't follow this strategy for sure. but from my experience between 7-10% is easily doable. last year my mutual funds returned me 18%. this year its not so great, about 4% (but this year has been horrible and i would have lost a TON more investing in individual stocks).

as for taking big risks when you are young. this is a widely held strategy by some. i personally couldn't disagree with it more. compounding interest is your salvation. the sooner you start to build up a decent nest egg (say about 50k), you can damn near piss away every cent you earn for the rest of your life and that nest egg will have grown enough to take care of you when you retire.

i don't mean to be argumentative, but i really believe it is utterly stupid to play high risk when:

1) you sacrifice compounding interest / nest egg (which by the way is also a great safety net as you go through life in case of an emergency)

2) you're young and (relatively) stupid and don't really understand the risks you are taking (EVERYONE i know who is young and ambitious with investing has gotten BURNED within a year of taking their shots. maybe everyone i know are anomolies, im just saying that's what i've seen).

3) if you get a taste of success its probably the worst thing that can happen. because you will likely forgo mutual funds all together in the future as you sink into the gambler mindset full time and keep trying to hit the jackpot like you did in the beginning.

4) its easier to 'live beneath your means' when you are young than when you are older.

look, im not saying speculative investing doesn't have its place. im just saying the smart play is to build a 50k nest egg before the age of 35 and then go off and try your hand at making the picks yourself.

this is all about risk and reward. just like gambling, the higher the risks, the greater the reward.

but i will tell you this much, most people will learn the hard way that there is no free lunch. slow and steady is the best option out there.

but hey, if someone thinks i'm smoking crack then they should play the market with fantasy money. pretend you have 30k to invest. pick the stocks you would buy and then track them for 3/6/12 months and see if you are up or down. if you're able to pull in more than a 10% return over 12 months, then maybe you've got what it takes to beat the market.

it can be done. I do play teh stock market, and i have beaten it. but to make the real money you have to play the risky stocks (the ones where no one knows whether the business is going to soar or flop). and i can tell you, i've invested in stuff where i thought i had the inside scoop and i really knew the business and the sector etc. and i lost my shirt. then other times, I just bought a solid business that i thought would do well moderately, and it exploded with growth.

but im telling ya, speculative investing is the wild wild west and should be left until later in life when you have a better understanding of how the markets respond to various business dynamics and events, and to when you've taken care of life's basics (house, retirement fund, etc.).

the whole notion that its better to go risky when you are young is like saying you're better off gambling when you are young. losing money is losing money - period! but at least when you are older you have a better appreciation of how much you can afford to risk comfortably.
 

joekerr31

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oh and btw, i also think that many advisors who say 'invest risky when you are young' are suggesting that when you are 21 and have a couple of grand, put it in to something risky and just let it ride.

once you have a full time career (not job, career) and some decent coin to invest, you need to first invest in what will be guaranteed to grow.

OR, alternatively, if you just have to gamble, then do a 80/20 split. 80% goes to mutual funds, 20% you play with in the market. trust me, all these guys who think the market is fun to play in, after about a year or two will value the returns they got from their mutual funds!
 

joekerr31

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oh and by the way, no one ever talks about the cost of trading stocks.

lets say you buy a thousand bucks of a stock. typically it will cost you about 30 bucks to buy and sell the stock. now, lets say you make 10% on the stock, that's 100 bucks. you only clear 40 bucks after your buy/sell costs (a sad 4% return).

so to offset the buy / sell fees, you have to always be buying 3 grand worth or more. and unless you have a ton of money, that typically means you are only holding 5 or so stocks. in the original posters case, he'd be holding about 10 stocks.

number one rule of investing: DIVERSIFY.

having all your money riding on 10 stocks is NOT diversified. and lets say you have 100k to spend so that you can diversify over 20 or so stocks - you'd be stupid not to dump that 100k into a mutual fund anyway!

call me crazy, but i just do not see the logic in gambling on stocks before building up a sure thing.

anyway, i've said my peace on this topic. just my 2 cents, hope no one felt offended.
 
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