Interesting question, surprised this didn't get more attention.
First off, let's talk assumptions.
If I experienced this situation, at the time of the proposal I would estimate the probability of the agreement being a scam, behavioral science experiment, troll, or any other reality leading to an outcome where the money is not actually paid to me to be ~98%. For many of you other SS'ers out there, this number is likely higher, seeing how I am a 22 year old student with no assets to go after other than 40k in student loan debt.
This makes the expected value of my payout to be 2%*$30,000,000 = $600,000.
Since I have no connections to good money launderers, I'll be paying tax on this gift. I'll assume the top federal limit of 40%, thus lowering my expected payout to $240,000.
Thanks Bible_Belt for the HIV transmission stats. I will use these numbers for my next assumption. There's no number for oral, but I will use 0.04% as two studies concluded zero transmission risk, and one other concluded a 0.04% when including sex with infected men (it's for homosexual men, but this number is all we have). Effectively, I'm being generous.
It's a little difficult to determine what exactly counts as "one exposure", but let's be generous and say I have the stamina to engage in what will count as three "exposures" each of butt, vag, and mouth.
Assuming that contracting HIV from any one "exposure" is an independent event, I calculate the probability of going the entire night without contracting HIV to be:
((1 - 0.04%)^3)*((1 - 0.11%)^3)*((1 - 0.04%)^3) = ~99.43%
I'd consider myself to be a part of one of those groups whose life expectancy would match or exceed that of the general population, so that leaves out any calculations involving my perceived value of a decrease in life expectancy.
According to the CDC, lifetime HIV treatment costs $367,134 in 2009 dollars, or $401,676 adjusting for 9.4% cumulative inflation since then.
The expected value of my medical costs is (1 - 99.43%)*$401,676 = ~$2,290.
Net expected value is $240,000 - $2,290 = $237,710.
Now for the hard part - valuing the things that are not as easy to be valued.
Positive Value from Sex
Hiring a top tier escort for such a night would likely cost $15,000.
Negative Value from Cheating on my Girlfriend of 2 years (who I plan to marry)
Gonna say $30,000. At 22 and 26 (her), the cost of a lower middle-class sedan is likely to be enough to offset her pain of me having hot porno monkey sex with an absolute bombshell.
For you older and more established gents, I expect this number to be much, much higher (if you're married or committed), as you have both much more lose than I, as well more expected from you by your woman.
Now I KNOW some of you will respond saying that losing my girlfriend and not marrying her will actually be a net positive since she is statistically likely to torch me for half my net worth in 10-20 years, by the time I actually do have some assets to go after. For rationality, I will not refute this by saying anything along the lines of "But I KNOW she's the one and would never do that to me." However, this becomes a moot point as I DO plan to marry eventually and have children and do not want to leave the US. Better her than someone else.
CONCLUSION
That leaves the net value of accepting this proposal to be $222,710. Not only would I accept this positive-value proposal, I would also be willing to pay up to $222,710 for the opportunity to do so. So, OP...if this question were anything more than hypothetical, feel free to pm me :rock:
PS I showed this thread to my gf. All she had to say was "Why is he saying 'lol' every time he mentions AIDS? OP is an @$$hole." Yet, I suppose I am just as much of an @$$hole as you OP, seeing how I used a worldwide disease that 36 million people suffer from for the sake of my own entertainment.
