Economic and market musings / 2025

[Divorced w 3]

Get your money right in the year ahead.

Personal sufficiency is the ultimate confidence booster in all aspects of one’s life.

Some things (themes) to think about from a high level (aka macro) view to influence positioning in monetary and professional and personal affairs. Feel free to jump in.

Tariffs:

External supply inflation is the intended outcome, force supply chain logistics internally via inflation on imports to a point where the market will adjust, either with us manufacturing reignite or foreign suppliers and adversarial government economic forces will submit to American intended policy changes.

It’s far better to have the cost of imports become prohibitive long enough to reignite internal production as it becomes a much more permanently viable solution to be self reliant. Your political and liberally minded social scientists don’t want this, because self sufficiency is the ultimate negotiating mechanism and inversely is the enemy of global integration.

Internal rates will do the opposite of what most think as a result of this; if the internal economy suffers in the short run as the supply chain restructures , the natural rate will adjust downward to accommodate the transformation

Random thought: What did Jay Powell see and anticipate months ago in respect to monetary easing that traditional economic data seemed to entirely suggest against? Is he maybe a more pro American, neutral minded banker than originally credited by either political camp?

 

[Plinco]

Personal sufficiency is the ultimate confidence booster in all aspects of one’s life.

Mind and body are one. What affects one affects the other.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

It will be interesting to see how far into tariffs we go...some think it's more likely just a negotiating tactic, and any tariffs would be far less than what's being bandied about.

 

[Bible_Belt]

It will be interesting to see how far into tariffs we go...some think it's more likely just a negotiating tactic, and any tariffs would be far less than what's being bandied about.

The cost to re route goods through another country in order to avoid a tariff is only about 10 to 15%, so that is the actual effect of any tariffs higher than that.

The worst position to be in is selling a product to China that would be the victim of retaliatory tariffs, like Washington state cherries. Only larger crops like soybeans and corn typically qualify for grants to offset losses charged by tariffs.

 

[Divorced w 3]

The cost to re route goods through another country in order to avoid a tariff is only about 10 to 15%, so that is the actual effect of any tariffs higher than that.

The worst position to be in is selling a product to China that would be the victim of retaliatory tariffs, like Washington state cherries. Only larger crops like soybeans and corn typically qualify for grants to offset losses charged by tariffs.

I don’t know enough about the subject to know if it’s so easily feasible to mask the origin of a good from a country with a tariff. I would think that it would be possible to identify the item and I’m also pretty confident in the monetary systems ability to find the nexus of the shell company being used to shield it.

Supposedly, one of the key reasons he invited Xi to the inauguration was to personally discuss his perception of failure of the Chinese to import adequate American agricultural products.

 

[Divorced w 3]

It will be interesting to see how far into tariffs we go...some think it's more likely just a negotiating tactic, and any tariffs would be far less than what's being bandied about.

I am really interested to see how this plays out. Given that he’s constitutionally incapable of running again, he may be more inclined to push for wholesale manufacturing reemergence. Would it not be wild if Trump became the driving factor in the renewal of collective bargaining in the American labor force?

 

[Solomon]

Get your money right in the year ahead.

Personal sufficiency is the ultimate confidence booster in all aspects of one’s life.

Some things (themes) to think about from a high level (aka macro) view to influence positioning in monetary and professional and personal affairs. Feel free to jump in.

Tariffs:

External supply inflation is the intended outcome, force supply chain logistics internally via inflation on imports to a point where the market will adjust, either with us manufacturing reignite or foreign suppliers and adversarial government economic forces will submit to American intended policy changes.

It’s far better to have the cost of imports become prohibitive long enough to reignite internal production as it becomes a much more permanently viable solution to be self reliant. Your political and liberally minded social scientists don’t want this, because self sufficiency is the ultimate negotiating mechanism and inversely is the enemy of global integration.

Internal rates will do the opposite of what most think as a result of this; if the internal economy suffers in the short run as the supply chain restructures , the natural rate will adjust downward to accommodate the transformation

Random thought: What did Jay Powell see and anticipate months ago in respect to monetary easing that traditional economic data seemed to entirely suggest against? Is he maybe a more pro American, neutral minded banker than originally credited by either political camp?

Export stocks about to go through the roof?

 

[FlirtLife]

Export stocks about to go through the roof?

The market doesn't wait to adjust prices. A fraction of the tariff impact has already been priced in, but a lot of uncertainty remains over the amount and duration of each tariff. Last time, most tariffs lasted about a year.

Trump has announced 25% tariffs for Canada and Mexico. A quick online search shows 1 in 5 cars sold in the U.S. are made in Mexico, so expect dramatic price jumps.

Predicting the level and duration of tariffs is the key question, but I don't have the answer. I expect a risky and volatile year for stocks in 2025.

 

[Reincarnated]

Random thought: What did Jay Powell see and anticipate months ago in respect to monetary easing that traditional economic data seemed to entirely suggest against? Is he maybe a more pro American, neutral minded banker than originally credited by either political camp?

At the very least he's more pro-American than his wretched predecessor. I think more than anything the Fed realized the neutral rate (R-star) is probably higher than 2% per annum, maybe 2.5%, meaning they perceive more wiggle room in reaching that target (I don't think they can get to 2% in this cycle given the short-term tariff pressures).

 

[Divorced w 3]

Export stocks about to go through the roof?

There’s any number of ways the thesis can play out, most valuable is the thought process as it forms a conviction and framework, and then you position, pivot or simply do nothing which is an important position that many forget is possible also.