To me personally, I don't care if the oil will last ten more years or a thousand. I'm sick to death of the consumer society already. I was just making the point that the oil will run out someday. When it does, many people will return to something like subsistence agriculture.
Having said this . . .
I really hate it when CNBC or some politician starts talking about "Peak Oil." I know they're going to hype the shock value and mangle the concept.
There are two basic ideas behind "Peak Oil."
First, the rate of increase in comsumption is greater than the rate of increase in production. As production slows from the massive finds of the past, the inadequate increase in new production constrains worldwide economic growth. Production is increasing, yet it's still insufficient. There are no shortages, but rather, fuel price increases that discourage investment in the industries that use fuel. No serious geologist expects a new Ghawar to be found every few years.
Second, the basic problem in mining is not that there isn't still recoverable mineral in the ground. It's that it costs more and more to extract, transport, and refine the lower- and lower-quality ore. Whether we're talking about petroleum, gas, oil sands, or coal, the principle is the same. Even if we could reach theoretical maximum efficiency at laying pipelines, drilling insertion wells, pumping water, heating it to steam, and refining the ever-more-viscous remaining crude, it's just a matter of time until each field reaches the point where the energy it takes to get the oil is greater than the energy released by burning it. It's simple physical science. It doesn't matter how much petroleum is left in the ground. Some fields must be abandoned even though they still contain hundreds of millions of barrels of crude.