how to protect cash against inflation?

[jaygreenb]

It’s always people who don’t live or work in NYC that have the strongest opinions about it, exposing themselves as ideologues. If NYC were in destitute they wouldn’t be building like they are on every corner of the city.

The reality is that almost everyone who “leaves” NYC actually moves to New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, or Florida (for retirement ). For California, it has had positive high income and high net worth in-migration for decades. The housing market is on fire on both coasts. But don’t let the facts derail your ideology.



This is a strawman argument. “Mismanagement of funds” is not the reason why densely populated cities need more resources. Let us repeat:

You don't live there either. Never claimed to be an NYC expert but do have ties and access. Mom lives on Long Island, most extended family is around there, went to school in CT, college friends and family live and work in the city, some I talk to on a group chat daily. Could probably get a better pulse of what is actually happening there than you by end of day. We aren't talking decades, we are talking last few years. Things change. Crime has gotten considerably worse and there has been a large migration to tax friendly, safer and less draconian states. Just like SF isn't remotely close to the same city as 10yrs ago. Just like your mom makes you do chores for your allowance now.

I live in California, the real estate market isn't "on fire". Commercial and rents starting to get smoked especially bay area. Housing volume has gone down considerably since over a year ago. Crime is up considerably. You literally just make things up. I actually know people who work in these industries.

You just spit out a lot of word vomit without actually saying anything. No substance. You say some fancy catch words. Braindead.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Lowering downtown SF real estate values could have 'profound impacts' on city budget, official says

The situation in downtown San Francisco has become dire as tech companies move toward remote work. Supervisor Aaron Peskin says the money is already tight - this year the budget is projected to be slashed by a quarter of a billion dollars.

abc7news.com

Morgan Stanley analysts see a fall for commercial real estate 'worse than in the Great Financial Crisis'—BofA disagrees for 3 key reasons

Bank of America: "We conclude that the [CRE] challenges are real and significant, but…they are manageable and do not represent a systemic risk to the U.S. economy."

fortune.com

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/23/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

 

[EyeBRollin]

You don't live there either. Never claimed to be an NYC expert but do have ties and access. Mom lives on Long Island, most extended family is around there, went to school in CT, college friends and family live and work in the city, some I talk to on a group chat daily. Could probably get a better pulse of what is actually happening there than you by end of day.

I work in Manhattan. I bet your folks live in Suffolk County. People out in Long Island and Staten Island generally have a jilted view on the city as a whole. It is clouding the objectivity.

Crime has gone up everywhere; all over the country. NYC is still one of the top safest large cities in the United States.

there has been a large migration to tax friendly, safer and less draconian states.

You have an ideological narrative but you can pull the stats. Most people from New York move to neighboring states or Florida. Ironically, California is also a top 5 state New Yorkers move to. Narratives…

I live in California, the real estate market isn't "on fire". Commercial and rents starting to get smoked especially bay area. Housing volume has gone down considerably since over a year ago. Crime is up considerably. You literally just make things up. I actually know people who work in these industries.

The median home price in SoCal is what $800,000? Bay Area is even more. The “cool down” (if any) in housing is because interest rates have doubled in the last two years since covid-flation. Not due to political BS. Maybe if you believe a narrative hard enough it will come true. Been hearing NYC and California will go bust for decades… still hasn’t happened yet.

Maybe look into grabbing some real estate in these markets if you can. It’s expensive as fvcked, yet shvt won’t even stay on the market for two days. Destitute, right?

 

[BillyPilgrim]

All of the developed world is demographically collapsing. There are fewer people paying into the system, and more people collecting from it. The baby boomers' retirement is taking investment capital out of circulation, and it isn't coming back.

Oh that boomer capital will be respent on the economy via consumption though...

 

[FlirtLife]

You have an ideological narrative but you can pull the stats. Most people from New York move to neighboring states or Florida. Ironically, California is also a top 5 state New Yorkers move to. Narratives…

Interjecting with some U.S. Census data: "New York, New York (-305,465)" [1] meaning a 3.6% population decline (pop 8.5M) in one year. California's big cities also experienced (smaller) declines [1].

Side note: San Francisco is not a big city (0.8M pop).

[1]

Fastest-Growing Cities Are Still in the West and South

According to new population estimates, populations of cities and towns in the South and West regions of the United States still experienced the most growth.

www.census.gov

 

[FlirtLife]

A combination of options is probably the safest way to do it. Bitcoin, Gold, commodities and TBills.

First let me admit I have no public equities currently. Commodities and TBills hedge against inflation, but why no equities for growth?

I am 43, owned a business for 13 yrs and have a 7fig net worth too. Liquid, the real meaning of the word.

Investing like Michael Burry, in water? (kidding!) The least liquid investments become available at 7fig: hedge funds.

 

[EyeBRollin]

Interjecting with some U.S. Census data: "New York, New York (-305,465)" [1] meaning a 3.6% population decline (pop 8.5M) in one year.

This is cherry picked. The decline mentioned in that one year was 2020-2021, the height of the pandemic. NYC’s population increased over the last 10-year census. As stated above, most people that leave New York actually just move to NJ, CT, or PA. You also have older folks retiring to Florida, and the top state outside of those four is California.

 

[jaygreenb]

First let me admit I have no public equities currently. Commodities and TBills hedge against inflation, but why no equities for growth?


Investing like Michael Burry, in water? (kidding!) The least liquid investments become available at 7fig: hedge funds.

Could make the argument for a lot of assets, nothing against equities. Although this decade I think a lot will depend on what sector. Any sector or companies that are levered up or relied on cheap debt(most) personally not a fan of. I have been wrong many times before though. Strictly for inflation, those would be just more of my personal preference

Water will be very important. Just not sure how to go about doing it properly nor do I have any understanding of that space. Anecdotal, but anytime I just throw money at an investment/business without an in depth understanding of it or personally operating it, usually doesn't work out the way I hoped.

Valuations mean nothing if it isn't actually liquid. Many are learning that the hard way across multiple sectors now like banks, RE funds, exchanges etc. Many Balance sheets are a farce. “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.”

 

[jaygreenb]

This is cherry picked. The decline mentioned in that one year was 2020-2021, the height of the pandemic. NYC’s population increased over the last 10-year census. As stated above, most people that leave New York actually just move to NJ, CT, or PA. You also have older folks retiring to Florida, and the top state outside of those four is California.

The point is, last few years for a number of reasons there have been significant changes in trends and behaviors. Not sure why you get upset about it

Young people earning $100,000 or more are fleeing California and New York—here's where they're going

The number of young individuals making above $100,000 are leaving California and New York at increasing rates. These are the places they flock to.

www.cnbc.com

IRS Data Reveals California, New York, Illinois Biggest Losers of Residents & their Wealth – California Globe

californiaglobe.com

 

[jaygreenb]

Interjecting with some U.S. Census data: "New York, New York (-305,465)" [1] meaning a 3.6% population decline (pop 8.5M) in one year. California's big cities also experienced (smaller) declines [1].

Side note: San Francisco is not a big city (0.8M pop).

[1]

Fastest-Growing Cities Are Still in the West and South

According to new population estimates, populations of cities and towns in the South and West regions of the United States still experienced the most growth.

www.census.gov

More than 2K millionaires fled New York during COVID pandemic: IRS data

New York’s decline was reported at a time when the number of millionaires grew nationally by some 10% — from 554,340 to 608,540.

nypost.com

Column: California's population is on the decline, and high-income earners have joined the exodus

California is losing population and it turns out that among those fleeing to other states, including Texas, Nevada and Arizona, are high-income earners that California relies on for state tax revenue.

www.latimes.com

.

Some 1,453 millionaire taxpayers packed up and said goodbye to New York in 2021, 520 fewer than departed in 2020. The 2020 total was nearly three times more than in 2019. And it represented roughly 5 percent of millionaire taxpayers, while only about 3 percent of all taxpayers moved away


But the number leaving California “increased dramatically” to 220,000 in 2021, he reports. It wouldn't take many fleeing rich people to hurt the state treasury. The top 1% of earners pay nearly 50% of the state income taxes.Mar 23, 2023

 

[FlirtLife]

This is cherry picked. The decline mentioned in that one year was 2020-2021, the height of the pandemic. NYC’s population increased over the last 10-year census. As stated above, most people that leave New York actually just move to NJ, CT, or PA. You also have older folks retiring to Florida, and the top state outside of those four is California.

Yes, I used the May 2022 Census report. And in the May 2023 census report, it's the same thing. Speaking of which, what is your source? I'm citing census.gov before and now here. What evidence are you using to claim the population is going up?

• The New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro area was the most populous with a population of 19,617,869 as of July 1, 2022, a decrease of 156,517 from July 1, 2021, with the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA metro area being the second-most populous with a 2022 population of 12,872,322, a decrease of 100,525 from 2021.

Large Southern Cities Lead Nation in Population Growth

Nine of the nation’s 15 fastest-growing cities were in the South, according to Vintage 2022 Population Estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.

www.census.gov

 

[FlirtLife]

Could make the argument for a lot of assets, nothing against equities. Although this decade I think a lot will depend on what sector. Any sector or companies that are levered up or relied on cheap debt(most) personally not a fan of. I have been wrong many times before though. Strictly for inflation, those would be just more of my personal preference

Water will be very important. Just not sure how to go about doing it properly nor do I have any understanding of that space. Anecdotal, but anytime I just throw money at an investment/business without an in depth understanding of it or personally operating it, usually doesn't work out the way I hoped.

Valuations mean nothing if it isn't actually liquid. Many are learning that the hard way across multiple sectors now like banks, RE funds, exchanges etc. Many Balance sheets are a farce. “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.”

My guess at worst valuations are early stage VC. Late stage are close enough to IPO to make comparisons to public companies. Early stage (private) companies may be unwilling to accept lower valuations, and nobody can tell without a funding round. But you could also argue that Silicon Valley Bank had 5+ year U.S. Treasuries it couldn't afford to sell for a loss, making its balance sheet overly illiquid.

That quote about the tide going out is most often attributed to Warren Buffet. He's certainly a legend, having beaten the S&P 500 for decades. But when I invested actively a few years back, his folksy sayings didn't seem to match his own behavior. He said to never bet against America as he dumped American stocks as fast as he could (the largest, if I recall correctly, was a huge investment in an airline).

But Warren Buffet hates Bitcoin, which you also mentioned. But discussing crypto probably deserves its own thread, so enough said.

 

[EyeBRollin]

The point is, last few years for a number of reasons there have been significant changes in trends and behaviors. Not sure why you get upset about it

There is no upset, there are facts and data. If you cherry pick pandemic peak out-migration, that is not indicative of the mass exodus talking points have been peddling for the last 20 years.

“Millionaire exodus” is a combination of factors, most notably moving to neighboring New Jersey or Connecticut, moving to Florida (retirement), or the hidden one… the person just didn’t gross as much income in a given year (the latter folks didn’t actually move, they got a better accountant). Also, no place develops more new millionaires in the US than NYC does.

 

[jaygreenb]

My guess at worst valuations are early stage VC. Late stage are close enough to IPO to make comparisons to public companies. Early stage (private) companies may be unwilling to accept lower valuations, and nobody can tell without a funding round. But you could also argue that Silicon Valley Bank had 5+ year U.S. Treasuries it couldn't afford to sell for a loss, making its balance sheet overly illiquid.

That quote about the tide going out is most often attributed to Warren Buffet. He's certainly a legend, having beaten the S&P 500 for decades. But when I invested actively a few years back, his folksy sayings didn't seem to match his own behavior. He said to never bet against America as he dumped American stocks as fast as he could (the largest, if I recall correctly, was a huge investment in an airline).

But Warren Buffet hates Bitcoin, which you also mentioned. But discussing crypto probably deserves its own thread, so enough said.

I 100% think the kind old grandpa who eats McDonalds every day persona is a façade. Nothing wrong with being rich but you do not get to the levels he has without being incredibly shrewd and sometimes cut throat. Anytime I see some of these ultra wealthy investor guys speaking publicly, just assume most often they are trying to use the general public as exit liquidity. Chamath did the same thing with tesla.

To keep is short, personal opinion is Bitcoin is completely different than "crypto". One of the reasons why it has been classified as a commodity. If I had to compare to previous tech cycle, Bitcoin=internet, everything else= is a tech/software company. Vast majority are at best a start up tech company but most a scam/cash grab. As far as Buffet, he has always lagged with investing with tech. Because of his age not really the guy I look to for information on new tech.

There is no upset, there are facts and data. If you cherry pick pandemic peak out-migration, that is not indicative of the mass exodus talking points have been peddling for the last 20 years.

“Millionaire exodus” is a combination of factors, most notably moving to neighboring New Jersey or Connecticut, moving to Florida (retirement), or the hidden one… the person just didn’t gross as much income in a given year (the latter folks didn’t actually move, they got a better accountant). Also, no place develops more new millionaires in the US than NYC does.

It is not cherry picking if that is the time I am specifically referring too. I haven't been pedaling anything the last 20yrs, just said last few years some behaviors and dynamics changed. That is a really weird accusation to make, are you ok?

 

[HaleyBaron]

What do you think America would look like with no local taxes?

Paradise.

 

[FlirtLife]

There is no upset, there are facts and data. If you cherry pick pandemic peak out-migration, that is not indicative of the mass exodus talking points have been peddling for the last 20 years.

After you complained of 2020-2021 data, I posted 2022-2023 data - so why are you still complaining of "pandemic peak out-migration"? Where are your "facts and data" showing something else - like links to census.gov?

 

[FlirtLife]

To keep is short, personal opinion is Bitcoin is completely different than "crypto". One of the reasons why it has been classified as a commodity. If I had to compare to previous tech cycle, Bitcoin=internet, everything else= is a tech/software company. Vast majority are at best a start up tech company but most a scam/cash grab. As far as Buffet, he has always lagged with investing with tech. Because of his age not really the guy I look to for information on new tech.

My personal view is that Ethereum will displace Bitcoin, as nearly all innovations occur in Ethereum. I don't own highly controversial NFTs, but those and various new coins rely on Etehereum's blockchain. Recent upgrade reduced energy usage 99.9%, which may convince younger crypto fans to switch. I view crypto as technology that has not yet panned out - and maybe will, maybe never will (trying to capture the haters and fans in one concept...)

Agreed, value investors like Buffet (& Munger) avoid growth and speculative technology. Although good luck tearing him away from his private jet.

 

[EyeBRollin]

After you complained of 2020-2021 data, I posted 2022-2023 data - so why are you still complaining of "pandemic peak out-migration"? Where are your "facts and data" showing something else - like links to census.gov?

Already posted my data. Most people leaving NYC end up in NJ, CT, and PA. Some retire move to Florida (the 6th NYC borough). Some move to California. So much for the “taxes” argument…

 

[jaygreenb]

My personal view is that Ethereum will displace Bitcoin, as nearly all innovations occur in Ethereum. I don't own highly controversial NFTs, but those and various new coins rely on Etehereum's blockchain. Recent upgrade reduced energy usage 99.9%, which may convince younger crypto fans to switch. I view crypto as technology that has not yet panned out - and maybe will, maybe never will (trying to capture the haters and fans in one concept...)

Agreed, value investors like Buffet (& Munger) avoid growth and speculative technology. Although good luck tearing him away from his private jet.

I own a lot of Ethereum, second largest holding behind bitcoin, but completely disagree. They serve very different roles and Eth carries considerably more risk. With eth, we have no idea yet if it can scale or if proof of stake works. It also has a growing list of competitors and it carries considerable founder/corp/regulatory risk. Since you have to rely on people/corps that they will not become bad actors it really gets away of what is most important, decentralization. It is not nearly as secure or robust as BTC. On the other hand, Bitcoin is basically finished product and as is, the market cap can grow considerably. Any scaling or transaction issues can be solved on layers build on top of it. You do not have to trust a vitalik or eth foundation that they will do the right thing. Nobody can change the rules or has outsized catastrophic influence. In fact when there is a large stressor, like China ban, the network adapts by natural market forces that cause the network to a become more robust. I believe Bitcoin will be the foundation of the entire eco system and everything else will constantly evolve and change. It will be trusted foundation that can always be reset to and able to rebuild.

Anyway, this is just my opinion and things could very well play out differently. That's the great thing about investing, you can allocate to where your beliefs lie and your return is your report card. Buffet has some great insights but like everyone else they have thier own strengths and weakness's. Just have to determine what parts are useful

 

[jaygreenb]

Already posted my data. Most people leaving NYC end up in NJ, CT, and PA. Some retire move to Florida (the 6th NYC borough). Some move to California. So much for the “taxes” argument…

You aren't very good at this lol Dont ever be a lawyer

 

[FlirtLife]

After you complained of 2020-2021 data, I posted 2022-2023 data - so why are you still complaining of "pandemic peak out-migration"? Where are your "facts and data" showing something else - like links to census.gov?

Already posted my data. Most people leaving NYC end up in NJ, CT, and PA. Some retire move to Florida (the 6th NYC borough). Some move to California. So much for the “taxes” argument…

Do you have links to an authoritative source, or not?