Quarantines coming in major cities

[EyeBRollin]

Just check the numbers right now and uh, they say to stick it.

Do they?

Check out the US Coronavirus tracker. At this post we're at ~19,000 cases. That number has been doubling every two days for the last two weeks. That trajectory we clear seven figures in another two weeks.

I hope you're right, and that these soft quarantine orders work as planned.

 

[thinker]

@EyeBRollin I forgot to mention cruise lines like Royal Caribbean are also lending their cruise ships to the government to use as hospitals not to mention that the U.S. navy is using it's medical ships as well. The population of America is over 400 million and we have less than 20,000 cases and less than 200 deaths. Every year the U.S. gets tens of millions of cases of the regular flu and about 50 to 60 thousand deaths yet nobody goes crazy over it. But hey if you want to shiit your pants over this go right ahead.

 

[EyeBRollin]

@thinker what exactly are you trying prove? The current trajectory is disastrous. But hey, check this thread in a couple weeks.

 

[Ohso-Phresh]

Let’s get real about that,
Left- untruth to create fear
Right- truth and facts that speak for themselves

I’ll cut the pie as:
Emotional enjoys being emotional
Rational enjoys using logic
Both camps have both right and left political polarities as extremists and as those more moderate.

 

[EyeBRollin]

Half of those cases are in NY state alone, with the bulk in NYC. The rest are concentrated in other very densely populated areas, such as Cali.

Even though the virus is nationwide, natural barriers exist in slowing the spread of the virus throughout most of the country. Rural areas with much lower population densities are not going to experience the same rate of expansion as the national numbers suggest, which is currently being driven by these major cities.

The only way these exponential numbers continue is if major cities cannot curb it with more pressing restrictions, which I do believe are coming. And it will keep coming until the curve flattens.

They aren’t going to wait until millions are infected and hospitals are overwhelmed before they decide to take more drastic measures.

You’ll more likely see enforced curfews/quarantines by the police/military before you see infections reaching 7 figures nationally.

Rural areas are still susceptible to this disease and are even more ill-equipped with hospital capacity. If this virus managed to infect nearly every country on the planet (and every state in the USA), it will get to rural areas. It's only a matter of time.

The curve will eventually flatten but as I said today's numbers actually reflect the virus two weeks ago. Considering these restrictions are just now ramping up, that 1,000,000 cases threshold is inevitable.

 

[redskinsfan92]

If you live in a major city and have someplace to go, now is the time to gtfo and go. Quarantine is coming, and they won't let you leave. The attached pic is a train of armored personnel carriers moving into Chicago this evening. They are there to enforce the quarantine.

Might be right. Saw similar pics from Baltimore

 

[EyeBRollin]

I’m not saying rural areas are not susceptible. I’m not even saying it won’t get there (it probably already is). I’m talking about geographical epidemiology.

Even if a person in a rural area is infected, they will not spread it to others at anywhere near the same numbers as their urban counterparts. This is because people are far more spaced out already by comparison. This space acts as a somewhat natural barrier to how far and how quickly the disease can spread in such areas.

That doesn’t mean it won’t spread, but it will do so at a slower pace compared to urban areas and will be far easier to get under control. So you can’t say these numbers are going to continue doubling every 2 days nationwide. That’s just the trend in highly populated areas right now.

97% of America’s land is in rural counties. So this rate of infection is primarily focused in those areas that make up the other 3%. Granted there are a lot of people in that 3% geography, but it is also a far more concentrated effort to contain it. And like I said earlier, half of the cases in this country are in NY with the bulk in NYC. There is a reason for that.

Yes, of course population density matters. However, the United States population is concentrated in cities and suburbs. Only about 20% of Americans live in rural areas. Although the density is lower in suburbs than cities, many suburbanites venture into or closer to the city for work, play, or travel.

You can’t take these trending numbers and just extrapolate a future figure from the national population. Suggesting the number of cases will reach 7 figures is essentially saying these metropolitan areas making up 3% of the nation’s geography will continue to experience a rate of spread that will carry on exponentially completely unchecked, despite the fact they are focusing very heavily on these very areas and despite the effort of any restrictive measures being taken.

You might as well just come out and say they can’t do anything to dampen the curve.

Sure we can. That's why graphs are so powerful. The United States' growth curve is almost identical to Italy (just 10 days or so behind). Seven figures is inevitable in the USA because measures and data taken today are two weeks behind the virus. Italy has been in full lock down for almost two weeks, and just had its highest death toll day along with thousands more transmissions.

For example, it is still fully possible for anyone that started working from home this week to have contracted the virus pre-social distancing and not even know it yet.

 

[corrector]

@EyeBRollin the Spanish flu pandemic and this are very different. When that pandemic broke out they didn't know that viruses existed because microscopes were still not able to show something as small as a virus, they actually thought it was caused by a bacteria and spent millions of dollars on the wrong thing. There are private companies that are already mobilizing to respond to this virus. Ford announced that they are putting some of their production into making more respirators as well as a British vacuum cleaner company that is also beginning production on respirators. Drug companies are producing and donating millions of pills of the malaria drug that has been shown to be effective against this virus and last Monday human trials began for a new vaccine for this virus. You and the rest of the panickers are acting like we are back in the 1800's and we are dealing with small pox , ebola and black plague all at the same time. One thing I have found interesting is the difference in the reactions to this between the right wingers and the left wingers on this site and other sites that I am active on.

You mentioned Ford, so this must mean you live in Ontario. Then you'll know there have been 2 deaths in this province so far.
Nobody want's to be next in that line on this virus.

 

[corrector]

@EyeBRollin I forgot to mention cruise lines like Royal Caribbean are also lending their cruise ships to the government to use as hospitals not to mention that the U.S. navy is using it's medical ships as well. The population of America is over 400 million and we have less than 20,000 cases and less than 200 deaths. Every year the U.S. gets tens of millions of cases of the regular flu and about 50 to 60 thousand deaths yet nobody goes crazy over it. But hey if you want to shiit your pants over this go right ahead.

That is because regular seasonal flu does not break the health-care system. You are under a universal health care system if you are in Canada so the Canadian government has the right to tell people to leave their system alone by self-isolating to ensure it's viable and everyone can continue to use it. Otherwise, isn't Ford taking this very seriously? Even your right-wing politicians are starting to shame non-essential businesses that are remaining open. Look at how Trump's tone has changed recently. There is no partisan issue dealing with this virus and Trump doesn't even stand by what you are saying. You are quoting things he has now retracted a week or so ago! It is thinking like this that if someone has a stroke or heart-attack, they will have to be left to die because the health care system would be over used.

 

[corrector]

Which Canadian is going to apply for the free $ 1,800 per month hand-out that Trudeau is offering? I bet all the right-wingers will secretly go and apply to the Canada Revenue Agency website and claim that benefit, lol!

 

[DelayedGratification]

Yes I’m aware of that. The point is, however, that our nation’s resources and efforts to slow the exponential rate of exposure can be heavily focused on a relatively small geographical area.

Anyone who watches the news can see this is exactly what they’re doing. There’s a reason why Bozeman, Montana isn’t making headlines with shutdowns while NYC, San Fran and others are.

So for you to say these numbers are inevitable is no different than saying all of these concentrated efforts to restrict it will be futile and ineffective.

I hear what you're saying, and there's merit to the argument that physical distance begets its own natural social distance. But in the argument of trajectory being the primary cause for concern, I'd direct you to these graphs (note the Y axis is an exponential scale):

Growth Rates, State by State

Each graph compares the given state to New York. Short of a few outliers, there are far more similarities than differences. Even when you account for variations in demographics, geography, and testing rates.

 

[DelayedGratification]

Research the bulk of cases in each of those states in the graph and you will find that roughly half or more of the cases in each state will be found in very densely populated areas. So it only makes sense that all these other densely populated areas will follow a similar trajectory as NY, which is driven primarily by NYCs stats.

Agreed on the city mice vs the country mice.

We’re at just about 18,000 confirmed cases in the US right now and there are already a few positive signs starting to come up. I understand that there will definitely be a lot more people infected and more people will die; that hospitals will certainly be taxed, but to just go out and say tens of millions of US citizens will succumb to this virus because it will continue unchecked I think is a gross overestimation and a complete lack of faith in all of the protocols being adopted or that will soon be adopted to prevent that.

The figures I've seen (from the Imperial College of London report) are that approx 2.2 million die in the US with no mitigation in place, and more like 1.2 million in an ideal, China-style lockdown (which isn't going to happen here). So I don't know who's claiming tens of millions, but roughly halving the death toll from 2.2M and saving a million lives seems a worthwhile thing.

 

[Billtx49]

Agreed on the city mice vs the country mice.


The figures I've seen (from the Imperial College of London report) are that approx 2.2 million die in the US with no mitigation in place, and more like 1.2 million in an ideal, China-style lockdown (which isn't going to happen here). So I don't know who's claiming tens of millions, but roughly halving the death toll from 2.2M and saving a million lives seems a worthwhile thing.

The Last place I would look to for accurate facts would be a public university hypothetical study.
WHO and CDC are up to date and have real facts from the field…

 

[thinker]

@corrector I live in the Miami and fort Lauderdale areas of florida in the good ol U.S.A., I think instead of focusing on things that you don't understand and can't control why don't you focus on the things you can control. Something that I haven't seen anyone else point out is that the hardest hit areas of the U.S. have very high populations of Chinese people, for example NYC and San Francisco both have such large chinese populations that they have their own china towns. Seattle also has a large chinese population. Actually all of california has a large chinese population and so does Italy. I believe this makes a difference. Where I live is the most populated area of Florida, Florida has more test kits than any other state so we are testing more than any other state and yet we are not seeing massive spikes in infections I think it is because we do not have a very large chinese population here.

 

[Bible_Belt]

The ny times dug up a simulation study done last year, attempting to replicate the 1918 flu pandemic if it happened today. Everything we are seeing now was predicted, especially equipment shortages. Only a draft copy was published. It was as though it was too horrific to finish the paper and release it.

 

[Billtx49]

The ny times dug up a simulation study done last year, attempting to replicate the 1918 flu pandemic if it happened today. Everything we are seeing now was predicted, especially equipment shortages. Only a draft copy was published. It was as though it was too horrific to finish the paper and release it.

Well it’s a dam shame the Spanish virus and the one we currently have would be like comparing aardvarks to eskimos and looking for similarities.

On a high note, DHS Secretary Chad Wolf just announced that a national lockdown or quarantine will Not happen.…
He dismissed that speculation. It also dismisses this threads purpose.
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