In The Event of War, Where Should One Invest Money?

[Desdinova]

This is a serious question. I'm becoming concerned about the rising tensions and the outbreaks of violence that have been happening. If any kind of a war breaks out, the economy is going to tank.

I was thinking gold would be a safe bet, but I'm wondering if there's anything else that's worthwhile?

 

[ChristopherColumbus]

Half US dollars [reserve currency] and half gold. And of course, real assets. Some currencies could become worthless quickly if a major war broke out.

The problem though is thermo-nuclear weapons. They are so devastating [a thousand times greater than the A-bomb dropped on Hiroshima] that the whole 'prep movement' is a joke. Nothing would survive that. God help us.

I still can't believe that the world didn't do all it could to de-nuclearize after the cold war ended. It's like nuclear weapons are now normalized.

 

[synergy1]

In the event of an actual market crash such as 2008, everything will take a big hit. Most of this doesn't have to do with the underlying but rather margin requirements, as people who have assets with their broker must sell to satisfy them. However you'll often see gold increase after a recession as the federal reserve might cut rates after a big crash. After a crash i might throw some in TLT or other longer maturity bond etfs. Ideally ill stay in cash and let things settle.

I don't see this scare materializing. The overall vix structure is still in contango, but inching towards backwardation so market fear isn't as high as it has been in other instances in the past 5 years. http://vixcentral.com/. The yield curve still looks okay too - longer maturity bonds have a higher yield than shorter maturities. https://www.treasury.gov/resource-c.../Pages/Historic-Yield-Data-Visualization.aspx. I'd start to worry if the longer term yields start to approach yields with shorter maturities( indicating more demand for safety as institutions park money in these securities).

Don't panic. If something happens, you'll get caught like the rest of us. The world won't end. If we start lobbing nukes, I don't think i'll care all that much if my service companies take a 15% hit.

 

[ChristopherColumbus]

Can't beat land... in Antarctica.

 

[synergy1]

Half US dollars [reserve currency] and half gold. And of course, real assets. Some currencies could become worthless quickly if a major war broke out.

The problem though is thermo-nuclear weapons. They are so devastating [a thousand times greater than the A-bomb dropped on Hiroshima] that the whole 'prep movement' is a joke. Nothing would survive that. God help us.

I still can't believe that the world didn't do all it could to de-nuclearize after the cold war ended. It's like nuclear weapons are now normalized.

I remember reading Richard Rhodes book , "Making of the Atomic Bomb" many years ago. An interesting discussion is why Oppenheimer ended up giving the Russians information on how to build the technology. The idea from what I recall was this - if one person or group has all the power, they are much more likely to use it ( see Hiroshima) than if both parties had bombs pointed at one another ( see Russia and the cold war).

I guess I am taking a gamble in believing that both the US and North Korea are rational despite the headlines we see daily from both leaders. Both leaders must know that any real conflict would be a lose-lose for all parties involved. If they do not, and the leadership is that far removed from the people they govern, than we are already in trouble. This is my fear..

 

[ChristopherColumbus]

I remember reading Richard Rhodes book , "Making of the Atomic Bomb" many years ago. An interesting discussion is why Oppenheimer ended up giving the Russians information on how to build the technology. The idea from what I recall was this - if one person or group has all the power, they are much more likely to use it ( see Hiroshima) than if both parties had bombs pointed at one another ( see Russia and the cold war).

I guess I am taking a gamble in believing that both the US and North Korea are rational despite the headlines we see daily from both leaders. Both leaders must know that any real conflict would be a lose-lose for all parties involved. If they do not, and the leadership is that far removed from the people they govern, than we are already in trouble. This is my fear..

I think it was a British communist involved in the Manhattan Project that leaked information to the Russians. Oppenheimer was one of the first casualties of the cold war witch-hunt that culminated in McCarthyism. See from 1.28

 

[speed dawg]

Food and water probably. But since whoever is winning the war could come and take that from you anyway, you probably have nothing. Your best investment may be hunting/fishing/agriculture skills. But you may not have tools.

I'd say the best investment is some hidden bunker (that's not detectable) with a bunch of canned goods and bottled water.

Honestly, I'd rather just die.

 

[Meektrop]

Africa

 

[Fatal Jay]

you cant eat or drink gold......think about it.............

 

[ChristopherColumbus]

you cant eat or drink gold......think about it.............

It is valuable and portable. Economic collapse.... you should own some gold. Complete environmental collapse... it doesn't matter what you do.... own some form of religious faith in hope of the hereafter.

 

[marmel75]

This is a serious question. I'm becoming concerned about the rising tensions and the outbreaks of violence that have been happening. If any kind of a war breaks out, the economy is going to tank.

I was thinking gold would be a safe bet, but I'm wondering if there's anything else that's worthwhile?

Investing in stocks during times when the market crashes are when fortunes are made. Usually stocks are driven by people who are morons. They sell when it's low and buy when it's high. When the market crashes, these people sell, driving the price down further. Do you think a company like Pepsi or Coca Cola or any other such blue chip company is going to go out of business because the stock market crashed and their stocks are trading near 2 or 3 year lows? Hell no...you buy up as many shares of stock as you can in solid performing companies that obviously will rebound after the market settles down and stops freaking out.

I am dying for the market to crash so I can freaking dump money into it...

 

[synergy1]

Investing in stocks during times when the market crashes are when fortunes are made. Usually stocks are driven by people who are morons. They sell when it's low and buy when it's high. When the market crashes, these people sell, driving the price down further. Do you think a company like Pepsi or Coca Cola or any other such blue chip company is going to go out of business because the stock market crashed and their stocks are trading near 2 or 3 year lows? Hell no...you buy up as many shares of stock as you can in solid performing companies that obviously will rebound after the market settles down and stops freaking out.

I am dying for the market to crash so I can freaking dump money into it...

Yup you and a lot of other eager investors. I am reading a good paper by ray dalio talking about the debt cycle, and the subsequent deleveraging that will come from that has me nervous to enter the market , even if we have another 10% correction. Look at Japans index, its been sideways for decades now, and they haven't even begun their deleveraging process ( granted I think this process will be global).

But all in all yeah, after a nice correction is the best time to buy. I'd love to snag the next amazon, or pier 1 imports at a bargain. The problem is no one knows when that will be and which companies it will be. If you follow the beaten down stocks, people hate them and the industries they belong too. And holding onto these for years is equally painful and frustrating. If you had invested at the wrong time in amazon with, say 10,000$, you would have had to sit on a loss for years. But if you held on, you could have turned that into a million. The problem is no one holds on.

Take now the most beaten down sectors like the dry shipping industry or the offshore drilling industry. There is a ton of bankruptcies in both spaces - many great dividend paying stocks have been reduced 95% of their value since their highs. studies have shown that these industries are the next winners, but many people who have lost money in them are too scarred to enter them, or recommend them so they remain down. Mark my words, in 10 years if you put 10,000 into the winner in either of these spaces, you will come out a millionaire. But also mark my words, I don't know which one it is

 

[Meektrop]

Yup you and a lot of other eager investors. I am reading a good paper by ray dalio talking about the debt cycle, and the subsequent deleveraging that will come from that has me nervous to enter the market , even if we have another 10% correction. Look at Japans index, its been sideways for decades now, and they haven't even begun their deleveraging process ( granted I think this process will be global).

But all in all yeah, after a nice correction is the best time to buy. I'd love to snag the next amazon, or pier 1 imports at a bargain. The problem is no one knows when that will be and which companies it will be. If you follow the beaten down stocks, people hate them and the industries they belong too. And holding onto these for years is equally painful and frustrating. If you had invested at the wrong time in amazon with, say 10,000$, you would have had to sit on a loss for years. But if you held on, you could have turned that into a million. The problem is no one holds on.

Take now the most beaten down sectors like the dry shipping industry or the offshore drilling industry. There is a ton of bankruptcies in both spaces - many great dividend paying stocks have been reduced 95% of their value since their highs. studies have shown that these industries are the next winners, but many people who have lost money in them are too scarred to enter them, or recommend them so they remain down. Mark my words, in 10 years if you put 10,000 into the winner in either of these spaces, you will come out a millionaire. But also mark my words, I don't know which one it is

Loving this, too bad I don't have 20 thousand on hand to put down

 

[synergy1]

Loving this, too bad I don't have 20 thousand on hand to put down

And its hard to know which one will be the winner. In the 1900s, we knew that cars would be a winner. Out of the thousands of companies, only a handful survived. How one can pick a winner is challenging. I also think Crypto currencies are going to disrupt how we do transactions around the world, but its unclear who or what the long term winner will be.

 

[speed dawg]

I am dying for the market to crash so I can freaking dump money into it...

I'm the same way. I have stopped buying anything right now (including putting money into my retirement), and instead I'm paying off debt, and when that is finished in two months, I'm going to stockpile cash. I hope I can get this done before another crash because I want to be ready when it happens.

I made good money on real estate that I bought in 2010, when EVERYBODY was telling me not to do it. Now, EVERYBODY is saying to buy real estate. I won't touch it.

I honestly think the secret to this deal is simply buy low, sell high. To put this into action though, you must have GUTS. I'll be the first one to tell you, I didn't want to buy that house during the crash. It took a lot of faith, and it paid off. Much easier said than done.

 

[switch7]

Us treasury bonds, gold and silver, Swiss franc.. Those are the safe havens.

 

[Julian]

water food guns bullets gold survival stuff like a wood burning stove, land, homesteading equipment etc etc.


how u gonna check your 401k with an emp strike hitting

or even just power grid being destroyed cybernetically?

the realities of life will hit the masses VERY hard. In the event of a true war you can expect enemy missiles planes and foreign boots on American soil. I think checking on your stock portfolio is going to be the least of your worries at that time.

 

[dasein]

Talking all out Red Dawn type event?

Bar Soap. The man with a large stash of bar soap in dire times will never starve. Cheap to hoard, lasts long, convenient trading sizes, everyone wants but not valuable enough to kill or rob you for like guns, ammo or gas.

Canned Fish. Keeping 100-200 cans of sardines/kippers on hand and eating from the top while adding to the bottom.

Coffee, cigs, bulk tobacco, first aid commodities like baking soda and hydrogen peroxide all good too. Any fool can create intoxicants like alcohol, coffee, tobacco much tougher to make.

 

[Bible_Belt]

I think peanut butter is the best single food from which to subsist, at least in a bunker mentality. It stores very well, and you can eat from the top, like Dasein said about cans of fish.

In any sort of 'sh!t hits the fan' scenario, water is going to be the first concern for most people. When the toilets stop flushing, people will sh!t in the street, and other people will be drinking from puddles because they are thirsty. A cholera epidemic is virtually guaranteed. Water purification is good knowledge/equipment to have.

 

[logicallefty]

Investing in stocks during times when the market crashes are when fortunes are made. Usually stocks are driven by people who are morons. They sell when it's low and buy when it's high. When the market crashes, these people sell, driving the price down further. Do you think a company like Pepsi or Coca Cola or any other such blue chip company is going to go out of business because the stock market crashed and their stocks are trading near 2 or 3 year lows? Hell no...you buy up as many shares of stock as you can in solid performing companies that obviously will rebound after the market settles down and stops freaking out.

I am dying for the market to crash so I can freaking dump money into it...

This right here is great advise to those who want to go "long" on stocks, which is buy low/sell high, the traditional way to play stocks.

One can also "short" stocks in a bad market, where you short high/cover low, and make money on stocks as they go down rather than up. (And if they go up, you loose $). I've done it before and it really works. Its riskier than traditional "long" sales but in a bad market it's an option.